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Asymmetric effect of government debt on GDP growth: evidence from Namibia
Teboho Jeremiah Mosikari*
Teboho Jeremiah Mosikari
Affiliation: Department of Economics, North-West University, Mmabatho, South Africa
 0000-0001-8552-1566
Joel Hinaunye Eita* 
Article | Year: 2021 | Pages: 543 - 558 | Volume: 45 | Issue: 4 Received: September 7, 2020 | Accepted: July 12, 2021 | Published online: December 6, 2021
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FULL ARTICLE
FIGURES & DATA
REFERENCES
CROSSMARK POLICY
METRICS
LICENCING
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Source: Own compilation using data from IMF.
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GDP
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DBT
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LARG
|
|
Mean
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3.03
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21.18
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20.45
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Maximum
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12.26
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40.00
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20.88
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Minimum
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-1.82
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3.00
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20.10
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Standard deviation
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2.96
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6.63
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0.21
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Correlation
(Probability)
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GDP
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DBT
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LARG
|
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GDP
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1.00
-----
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|
|
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DBT
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-0.06
(0.68)
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1.00
-----
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|
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LARG
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0.54
(0.00)
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0.05
(0.77)
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1.00
-----
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Note: p-values are in brackets. Source: Computed by the authors.
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Variable
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Dimension
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BDS statistics
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LGDP
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2
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0.188
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3
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0.310
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4
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0.390
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5
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0.445
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6
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0.480
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DBT
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2
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0.144
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|
3
|
0.246
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|
4
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0.323
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|
5
|
0.363
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6
|
0.383
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LARG
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2
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0.124
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3
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0.211
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4
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0.261
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5
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0.287
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6
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0.297
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Note: Probability for all dimensions is zero. Source: Computed by the authors.
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Variables
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Breitung test
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Bierens test
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t-statistics
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p-values
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Coefficient
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t-statistics
|
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LGDP
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-0.386
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0.200
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-0.058
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-0.110
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LDBT
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0.003
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0.025
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-0.263
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-0.530
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LARG
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0.067
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0.400
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0.007
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0.420
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Critical value (%)
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Lower bound (0)
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Upper bound I(1)
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1
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4.29
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5.61
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5
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3.23
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4.35
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10
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2.72
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3.77
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NARDL F -
statistics
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Wald F-stats – 13.513***
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Notes: *** 1% significance level, **5% significance level, *10% significance level. Null hypothesis: no asymmetric cointegration. Alternative hypothesis: asymmetric cointegration. Rejection rule: reject null hypothesis if F-statistics is greater than the upper limit. Source: Computed by the authors.
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Exogenous variables
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Parameters
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p-values
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DBT_POS
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-0.104
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0.557
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DBT_NEG
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-0.738
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0.004***
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LARG
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18.456
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0.000***
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R-squared
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0.638
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Adjusted R-squared
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0.493
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Selected Model: ARDL(1, 3, 0, 2)
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Notes: *** 1% significance level, **5% significance level, *10% significance level. Dependent variable: D(GDP). Source: Computed by the authors.
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Exogenous variables
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Parameters
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p-values
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C
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-384.474
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0.000**
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@TREND
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-0.950
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0.000***
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∆ (DBT_POS)
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0.196
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0.302
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∆ (DBT_POS(-1)
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-0.027
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0.879
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∆ (DBT_POS(-2)
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0.672
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0.000***
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∆ (LARG)
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11.351
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0.002***
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∆ (LARG(-1)
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7.227
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0.039**
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Ect (-1)
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-1.033
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0.000***
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R-squared
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0.759
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Adjusted R-squared
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0.699
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Heteroskedasticity Test:
Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey
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0.862 (0.435)
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Jarque-Bera test
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82.240 (0.000)
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Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM
Test
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0.449 (0.906)
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Notes: *** 1% significance level, **5% significance level, *10% significance level. p-values are in brackets. Dependent variable: D(GDP). Source: Computed by the authors.
Source: Computed by the authors.
Notes: *** 1% significance level, **5% significance level, *10% significance level. Source: Computed by the authors.
Source: Computed by the authors.
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Nakale, S., Sikanda, M. and Mabuku, M., 2015. Fiscal policy and the national economy: aligning public expenditure to medium term development plan for socio-economic development. National Planning Commission Working Paper, NPC WP 01/15.
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Shin, Y., Yu, B. C. and Greenwood-Nimmo, M., 2014. Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. In R. Sickels and W. Horrace, eds. Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric methods and applications. New York: Springer, pp. 281-314 [ CrossRef]
Zaaruka, B. P., 2007. Technical paper: Public debt and economic growth in Namibia. the threshold effect. Harare: MEFMI.
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December, 2021
IV/2021 |
