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Budget transparency and internal revenue mobilisation at sub-national government level: evidence from Nigeria
Mohammed Aminu Yaru* 
Article | Year: 2022 | Pages: 505 - 531 | Volume: 46 | Issue: 4 Received: : February 15, 2022 | Accepted: May 30, 2022 | Published online: December 7, 2022
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FULL ARTICLE
FIGURES & DATA
REFERENCES
CROSSMARK POLICY
METRICS
LICENCING
PDF
Source: Compiled from CIRDDOC, 2015, 2018 and 2020, and BudgIT database for various years.
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Variables
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Measurement
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Impact on IGR
(a-priori expectation)
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Sources
|
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Internally Generated Revenue (IGR)
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Share of IGR in total Revenue (SIGR)
|
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Publications of NBS (Annual Abstract of
Statistics) and Budget publications for various years
|
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Economic Factors
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Population Density (Number of People per
Square Km) (PDS)
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Positive (+)
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Publications of NBS
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Socio-economic Factors
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Poverty Rate (POV)
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Negative (-)
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Publications of NBS (Annual Abstract of
Statistics for
various years)
|
|
Unemployment Rate (UR)
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Negative (-)
|
|
Political Factors (POF)
|
Political Party Affinity with centre ((PAC)
= 0 if the Governor belongs to the ruling party at the federal level,
otherwise =1)
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Negative (-)
|
INEC, Nigeria
|
|
TERM (= 0, if the Governor is serving
his/her
first term in office, 1 = if serving second term in office)
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Positive (+)
|
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Number of years in Office (YEARS)
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Positive (+)
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Compiled by author from INEC, Nigeria
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Fiscal Institutions (BT)
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Budget Transparency Index (BTI)
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Positive (+)
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CIRDDOC, Nigeria
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Public Availability of Key Budget
Documents (BAI)
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Positive (+)
|
|
Public Participation Index (PPI)
|
Positive (+)
|
|
Public Access to Public Procurement
Information (PPRI)
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Positive (+)
|
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Corruption
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Control of Corruption at national level
(COR)
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Positive (+)
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World Governance Indicators
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Note: NBS = National Bureau of Statistics; INEC = Independent National Electoral Commission. Source: Author’s compilation (2021).
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Variable
|
Obs.
|
Mean
|
Std. dev.
|
Min
|
Max
|
|
SIGR
|
108
|
23.41
|
14.57
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5.45
|
78.33
|
|
PDS
|
108
|
443.00
|
613.61
|
52.93
|
3885.70
|
|
POV
|
71
|
53.46
|
23.72
|
4.50
|
88.50
|
|
UR
|
108
|
31.88
|
15.10
|
8.37
|
64.75
|
|
PAC
|
108
|
0.39
|
0.49
|
0
|
1
|
|
BTI
|
108
|
32.41
|
18.18
|
7
|
90
|
|
BAI
|
108
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36.00
|
21.96
|
5
|
91
|
|
PPI
|
108
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22.64
|
20.94
|
0
|
100
|
|
PPRI
|
108
|
33.37
|
22.11
|
0
|
100
|
|
TERM
|
108
|
0.51
|
0.50
|
0
|
1
|
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YEARS
|
108
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3.86
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2.24
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1
|
10
|
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COR
|
108
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13.14
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0.45
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12.50
|
13.46
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Source: Author’s compilation (2021).
|
SIGR
|
PDS
|
POV
|
UR
|
PAC
|
BTI
|
BAI
|
PPI
|
PPRI
|
TERM
|
YEARS
|
COR
|
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SIGR
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1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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PDS
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0.6413
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1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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POV
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-0.5486
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-0.4022
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1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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UR
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-0.1121
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-0.0242
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-0.1872
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1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PAC
|
0.0254
|
0.1022
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-0.1192
|
0.0405
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1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BTI
|
0.2250
|
0.1588
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-0.2235
|
0.1160
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-0.0652
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1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BAI
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0.1544
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0.0720
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-0.2478
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0.1394
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-0.1095
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0.9262
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1
|
|
|
|
|
|
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PPI
|
0.2004
|
0.2092
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-0.0666
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-0.0750
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-0.0050
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0.742
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0.5440
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
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PPRI
|
0.2301
|
0.1929
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-0.0839
|
0.1071
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0.0185
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0.6962
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0.4393
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0.4875
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1
|
|
|
|
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TERM
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-0.0112
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-0.0158
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0.1469
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-0.2382
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-0.1288
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0.0845
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0.0424
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0.1621
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0.0696
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1
|
|
|
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YEARS
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-0.0302
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-0.0666
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-0.2344
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0.3799
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0.1860
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0.0613
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0.1549
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-0.1400
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-0.0563
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0.1714
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1
|
|
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COR
|
0.1709
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0.0417
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-0.4607
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0.6722
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0.0403
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0.2461
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0.3217
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-0.0983
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0.1199
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-0.2226
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0.4757
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1
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Variable
|
Obs
|
Mean
|
Std. Dev.
|
Min
|
Max
|
|
SIGR
|
51
|
30.36
|
16.91
|
8.18
|
78.33
|
|
PDS
|
51
|
737.01
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785.35
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172.39
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3885.7
|
|
POV
|
34
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38.81
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21.55
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4.5
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82.9
|
|
UR
|
51
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30.17
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15.13
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9.38
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57.96
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PAC
|
51
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0.61
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0.49
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0
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1
|
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BTI
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51
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34.10
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18.09
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7
|
79
|
|
BAI
|
51
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36.24
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23.13
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5
|
86
|
|
PPI
|
51
|
25.80
|
21.27
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0
|
78
|
|
PPRI
|
51
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36.86
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21.47
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2
|
100
|
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TERM
|
51
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0.53
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0.50
|
0
|
1
|
|
YEARS
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51
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3.92
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2.18
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1
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8
|
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COR
|
51
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13.14
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0.46
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12.5
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13.46
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Variable
|
Obs
|
Mean
|
Std. Dev.
|
Min
|
Max
|
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SIGR
|
57
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17.20
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8.16
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5.45
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44.57
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PDS
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57
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179.94
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139.82
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52.93
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735.81
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POV
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37
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66.92
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16.72
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20.35
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88.5
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UR
|
57
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33.41
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15.03
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8.37
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64.75
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PAC
|
57
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0.19
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0.40
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0
|
1
|
|
BTI
|
57
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30.89
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18.28
|
7
|
90
|
|
BAI
|
57
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35.79
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21.06
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8
|
91
|
|
PPI
|
57
|
19.79
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20.40
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0
|
100
|
|
PPRI
|
57
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30.25
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22.38
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0
|
93
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TERM
|
57
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0.49
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0.50
|
0
|
1
|
|
YEARS
|
57
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3.81
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2.31
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1
|
10
|
|
COR
|
57
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13.14
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0.46
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12.5
|
13.46
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Explanatory Variables
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Estimates Based on 2020
Data set
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Estimates Based on 2018
Data set
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Estimates Based on 2015
Data set
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Model IA
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Model IIA
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Model IB
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Model IIB
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Model IC
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Model IIC
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Dependent Variable =
SIGR
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Constant Intercept
|
34.6379***
(7.3127)
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37.5208***
(7.3088)
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32.0305***
(9.5070)
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33.0906***
(10.1008)
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28.1200***
(8.6623)
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28.3605***
(9.1120)
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PDS
|
0.0115***
(0.0029)
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0.0109***
(0.0029)
|
0.0127 ***
(0.0034)
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0.0122***
(0.0036)
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0.0161***
(0.0034)
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0.0153***
(0.0038)
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POV
|
-0.1722 **
(0 .0714)
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-0.1960**
(0.0703)
|
|
|
|
|
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UR
|
-0.2674 *
(0.1422)
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-0.3058**
(0.1407)
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-0.3740*
(0.1937)
|
-0.3873*
(0.2006)
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-0.7740*
(0.3954)
|
-0.7755*
(0.4120)
|
|
PAC
|
1.0320
(3.9323)
|
-1.2514
(4.0456)
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-4.3758
(4.0154)
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-4.7116
(4.1953)
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-1.5324
(3.8702)
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-1.6115
(4.0812)
|
|
BTI
|
0.0765
(0.1282)
|
|
0.1185
(0.1076)
|
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-0.0231
(0.1057)
|
|
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BAI
|
|
-0.0785
(0.1157)
|
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0.0162
(0.1175)
|
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-0.0660
(0.1262)
|
|
PPI
|
|
-0.0115
(0.1345)
|
|
0.0620
(0.1229)
|
|
0.0494
(0.1177)
|
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PPRI
|
|
0 .2064*
(0.1017)
|
|
0.0542
(0.1035)
|
|
-0.0003
(0.0978)
|
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|
No. of Obs. = 35
Df (5,29)
R2 = 0.5624
Adj. R2 = 0.4869
F(5, 29) = 7.45
Prob > F = 0.0001
|
No. of Obs. = 35
Df (7,27)
R2 = 0.6201
Adj. R2 = 0.5216
F(7, 27) = 6.29
Prob > F = 0.0002
|
No. of Obs. = 36
Df (4,31)
R2 = 0.4820
Adj. R2 = 0.4152
F(4, 31) = 7.21
Prob > F = 0.0003
|
No. of Obs. = 36
Df (6,29)
R2 = 0.4877
Adj. R2 = 0.3817
F(6, 29) = 4.60
Prob > F = 0.0021
|
No. of Obs. = 36
Df (4,31)
R2 = 0.5503
Adj. R2 = 0.4943
F(4, 31) = 9.48
Prob > F= 0.0000
|
No. of Obs. = 36
Df (6,29)
R2 = 0.5546
Adj. R2 = 0.4624
F(6, 29) = 6.02
Prob > F = 0.0004
|
Note: Standard error in parentheses; p-values in brackets; *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. Source: Author’s computation (2021).
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Sub-Sample of 17 Southern
States
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Sub-Sample of 19 Northern
States
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Abia
|
Adamawa
|
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Akwa-Ibom
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Bauchi
|
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Anambra
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Benue
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Bayelsa
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Borno
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Cross River
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Gombe
|
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Delta
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Jigawa
|
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Ebonyi
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Kaduna
|
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Edo
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Kano
|
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Ekiti
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Katsina
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Enugu
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Kebbi
|
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Imo
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Kogi
|
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Lagos
|
Kwara
|
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Ogun
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Nasarawa
|
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Ondo
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Niger
|
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Osun
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Plateau
|
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Oyo
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Sokoto
|
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Rivers
|
Taraba
|
|
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Yobe
|
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Zamfara
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Figure 1Trends of average Budget Transparency Index and percentage share of IGR in Aggregate Revenue of State Governments (SIGR), 2015-2020 DISPLAY Figure
Table 1Variables, measurement and data sources DISPLAY Table
Table 2Descriptive statistics for the 36 states DISPLAY Table
Table 3Correlation matrix for the 36 states DISPLAY Table
Table 4Results of panel data regression model for the 36 states DISPLAY Table
Table 5Results of panel data regression model for the 17 Southern states DISPLAY Table
Table 6Results of panel data regression model for the 19 Northern states DISPLAY Table
Table A1Descriptive statistics for the 17 Southern states DISPLAY Table
Table A2Descriptive statistics for the 19 Northern states DISPLAY Table
Table A3Cross-sectional regression results DISPLAY Table
Table A4The 36 states in Nigeria DISPLAY Table
* This paper has benefitted from the suggestions of Prof. I. O. Taiwo at the initial stage of preparing the manuscript. I wish to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their comments which have improved the paper. Ismail Muhammed provided invaluable research assistance at various stages of the research.
1 PDP was the ruling party at the national level between 1999 and 2015, while APC was formed in 2013 as coalition party by members of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), and factions of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) to form a formidable opposition against the PDP in preparation for the 2015 general elections.
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|
December, 2022
IV/2022 |
