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Budget transparency and internal revenue mobilisation at sub-national government level: evidence from Nigeria
Mohammed Aminu Yaru* 
Article | Year: 2022 | Pages: 505 - 531 | Volume: 46 | Issue: 4 Received: : February 15, 2022 | Accepted: May 30, 2022 | Published online: December 7, 2022
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FULL ARTICLE
FIGURES & DATA
REFERENCES
CROSSMARK POLICY
METRICS
LICENCING
PDF
Source: Compiled from CIRDDOC, 2015, 2018 and 2020, and BudgIT database for various years.
|
Variables
|
Measurement
|
Impact on IGR
(a-priori expectation)
|
Sources
|
|
Internally Generated Revenue (IGR)
|
Share of IGR in total Revenue (SIGR)
|
|
Publications of NBS (Annual Abstract of
Statistics) and Budget publications for various years
|
|
Economic Factors
|
Population Density (Number of People per
Square Km) (PDS)
|
Positive (+)
|
Publications of NBS
|
|
Socio-economic Factors
|
Poverty Rate (POV)
|
Negative (-)
|
Publications of NBS (Annual Abstract of
Statistics for
various years)
|
|
Unemployment Rate (UR)
|
Negative (-)
|
|
Political Factors (POF)
|
Political Party Affinity with centre ((PAC)
= 0 if the Governor belongs to the ruling party at the federal level,
otherwise =1)
|
Negative (-)
|
INEC, Nigeria
|
|
TERM (= 0, if the Governor is serving
his/her
first term in office, 1 = if serving second term in office)
|
Positive (+)
|
|
Number of years in Office (YEARS)
|
Positive (+)
|
Compiled by author from INEC, Nigeria
|
|
Fiscal Institutions (BT)
|
Budget Transparency Index (BTI)
|
Positive (+)
|
CIRDDOC, Nigeria
|
|
Public Availability of Key Budget
Documents (BAI)
|
Positive (+)
|
|
Public Participation Index (PPI)
|
Positive (+)
|
|
Public Access to Public Procurement
Information (PPRI)
|
Positive (+)
|
|
Corruption
|
Control of Corruption at national level
(COR)
|
Positive (+)
|
World Governance Indicators
|
Note: NBS = National Bureau of Statistics; INEC = Independent National Electoral Commission. Source: Author’s compilation (2021).
|
Variable
|
Obs.
|
Mean
|
Std. dev.
|
Min
|
Max
|
|
SIGR
|
108
|
23.41
|
14.57
|
5.45
|
78.33
|
|
PDS
|
108
|
443.00
|
613.61
|
52.93
|
3885.70
|
|
POV
|
71
|
53.46
|
23.72
|
4.50
|
88.50
|
|
UR
|
108
|
31.88
|
15.10
|
8.37
|
64.75
|
|
PAC
|
108
|
0.39
|
0.49
|
0
|
1
|
|
BTI
|
108
|
32.41
|
18.18
|
7
|
90
|
|
BAI
|
108
|
36.00
|
21.96
|
5
|
91
|
|
PPI
|
108
|
22.64
|
20.94
|
0
|
100
|
|
PPRI
|
108
|
33.37
|
22.11
|
0
|
100
|
|
TERM
|
108
|
0.51
|
0.50
|
0
|
1
|
|
YEARS
|
108
|
3.86
|
2.24
|
1
|
10
|
|
COR
|
108
|
13.14
|
0.45
|
12.50
|
13.46
|
Source: Author’s compilation (2021).
|
SIGR
|
PDS
|
POV
|
UR
|
PAC
|
BTI
|
BAI
|
PPI
|
PPRI
|
TERM
|
YEARS
|
COR
|
|
SIGR
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PDS
|
0.6413
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
POV
|
-0.5486
|
-0.4022
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
UR
|
-0.1121
|
-0.0242
|
-0.1872
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PAC
|
0.0254
|
0.1022
|
-0.1192
|
0.0405
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BTI
|
0.2250
|
0.1588
|
-0.2235
|
0.1160
|
-0.0652
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BAI
|
0.1544
|
0.0720
|
-0.2478
|
0.1394
|
-0.1095
|
0.9262
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PPI
|
0.2004
|
0.2092
|
-0.0666
|
-0.0750
|
-0.0050
|
0.742
|
0.5440
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
|
PPRI
|
0.2301
|
0.1929
|
-0.0839
|
0.1071
|
0.0185
|
0.6962
|
0.4393
|
0.4875
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
TERM
|
-0.0112
|
-0.0158
|
0.1469
|
-0.2382
|
-0.1288
|
0.0845
|
0.0424
|
0.1621
|
0.0696
|
1
|
|
|
|
YEARS
|
-0.0302
|
-0.0666
|
-0.2344
|
0.3799
|
0.1860
|
0.0613
|
0.1549
|
-0.1400
|
-0.0563
|
0.1714
|
1
|
|
|
COR
|
0.1709
|
0.0417
|
-0.4607
|
0.6722
|
0.0403
|
0.2461
|
0.3217
|
-0.0983
|
0.1199
|
-0.2226
|
0.4757
|
1
|
|
Variable
|
Obs
|
Mean
|
Std. Dev.
|
Min
|
Max
|
|
SIGR
|
51
|
30.36
|
16.91
|
8.18
|
78.33
|
|
PDS
|
51
|
737.01
|
785.35
|
172.39
|
3885.7
|
|
POV
|
34
|
38.81
|
21.55
|
4.5
|
82.9
|
|
UR
|
51
|
30.17
|
15.13
|
9.38
|
57.96
|
|
PAC
|
51
|
0.61
|
0.49
|
0
|
1
|
|
BTI
|
51
|
34.10
|
18.09
|
7
|
79
|
|
BAI
|
51
|
36.24
|
23.13
|
5
|
86
|
|
PPI
|
51
|
25.80
|
21.27
|
0
|
78
|
|
PPRI
|
51
|
36.86
|
21.47
|
2
|
100
|
|
TERM
|
51
|
0.53
|
0.50
|
0
|
1
|
|
YEARS
|
51
|
3.92
|
2.18
|
1
|
8
|
|
COR
|
51
|
13.14
|
0.46
|
12.5
|
13.46
|
|
Variable
|
Obs
|
Mean
|
Std. Dev.
|
Min
|
Max
|
|
SIGR
|
57
|
17.20
|
8.16
|
5.45
|
44.57
|
|
PDS
|
57
|
179.94
|
139.82
|
52.93
|
735.81
|
|
POV
|
37
|
66.92
|
16.72
|
20.35
|
88.5
|
|
UR
|
57
|
33.41
|
15.03
|
8.37
|
64.75
|
|
PAC
|
57
|
0.19
|
0.40
|
0
|
1
|
|
BTI
|
57
|
30.89
|
18.28
|
7
|
90
|
|
BAI
|
57
|
35.79
|
21.06
|
8
|
91
|
|
PPI
|
57
|
19.79
|
20.40
|
0
|
100
|
|
PPRI
|
57
|
30.25
|
22.38
|
0
|
93
|
|
TERM
|
57
|
0.49
|
0.50
|
0
|
1
|
|
YEARS
|
57
|
3.81
|
2.31
|
1
|
10
|
|
COR
|
57
|
13.14
|
0.46
|
12.5
|
13.46
|
|
Explanatory Variables
|
Estimates Based on 2020
Data set
|
Estimates Based on 2018
Data set
|
Estimates Based on 2015
Data set
|
|
Model IA
|
Model IIA
|
Model IB
|
Model IIB
|
Model IC
|
Model IIC
|
|
Dependent Variable =
SIGR
|
|
Constant Intercept
|
34.6379***
(7.3127)
|
37.5208***
(7.3088)
|
32.0305***
(9.5070)
|
33.0906***
(10.1008)
|
28.1200***
(8.6623)
|
28.3605***
(9.1120)
|
|
PDS
|
0.0115***
(0.0029)
|
0.0109***
(0.0029)
|
0.0127 ***
(0.0034)
|
0.0122***
(0.0036)
|
0.0161***
(0.0034)
|
0.0153***
(0.0038)
|
|
POV
|
-0.1722 **
(0 .0714)
|
-0.1960**
(0.0703)
|
|
|
|
|
|
UR
|
-0.2674 *
(0.1422)
|
-0.3058**
(0.1407)
|
-0.3740*
(0.1937)
|
-0.3873*
(0.2006)
|
-0.7740*
(0.3954)
|
-0.7755*
(0.4120)
|
|
PAC
|
1.0320
(3.9323)
|
-1.2514
(4.0456)
|
-4.3758
(4.0154)
|
-4.7116
(4.1953)
|
-1.5324
(3.8702)
|
-1.6115
(4.0812)
|
|
BTI
|
0.0765
(0.1282)
|
|
0.1185
(0.1076)
|
|
-0.0231
(0.1057)
|
|
|
BAI
|
|
-0.0785
(0.1157)
|
|
0.0162
(0.1175)
|
|
-0.0660
(0.1262)
|
|
PPI
|
|
-0.0115
(0.1345)
|
|
0.0620
(0.1229)
|
|
0.0494
(0.1177)
|
|
PPRI
|
|
0 .2064*
(0.1017)
|
|
0.0542
(0.1035)
|
|
-0.0003
(0.0978)
|
|
|
No. of Obs. = 35
Df (5,29)
R2 = 0.5624
Adj. R2 = 0.4869
F(5, 29) = 7.45
Prob > F = 0.0001
|
No. of Obs. = 35
Df (7,27)
R2 = 0.6201
Adj. R2 = 0.5216
F(7, 27) = 6.29
Prob > F = 0.0002
|
No. of Obs. = 36
Df (4,31)
R2 = 0.4820
Adj. R2 = 0.4152
F(4, 31) = 7.21
Prob > F = 0.0003
|
No. of Obs. = 36
Df (6,29)
R2 = 0.4877
Adj. R2 = 0.3817
F(6, 29) = 4.60
Prob > F = 0.0021
|
No. of Obs. = 36
Df (4,31)
R2 = 0.5503
Adj. R2 = 0.4943
F(4, 31) = 9.48
Prob > F= 0.0000
|
No. of Obs. = 36
Df (6,29)
R2 = 0.5546
Adj. R2 = 0.4624
F(6, 29) = 6.02
Prob > F = 0.0004
|
Note: Standard error in parentheses; p-values in brackets; *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. Source: Author’s computation (2021).
|
Sub-Sample of 17 Southern
States
|
Sub-Sample of 19 Northern
States
|
|
Abia
|
Adamawa
|
|
Akwa-Ibom
|
Bauchi
|
|
Anambra
|
Benue
|
|
Bayelsa
|
Borno
|
|
Cross River
|
Gombe
|
|
Delta
|
Jigawa
|
|
Ebonyi
|
Kaduna
|
|
Edo
|
Kano
|
|
Ekiti
|
Katsina
|
|
Enugu
|
Kebbi
|
|
Imo
|
Kogi
|
|
Lagos
|
Kwara
|
|
Ogun
|
Nasarawa
|
|
Ondo
|
Niger
|
|
Osun
|
Plateau
|
|
Oyo
|
Sokoto
|
|
Rivers
|
Taraba
|
|
|
Yobe
|
|
|
Zamfara
|
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December, 2022
IV/2022 |
