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Intragenerational occupational mobility: the effect of crisis and overeducation on career mobility in a segmented labour market
Georgios Kitsoleris* 
Tuan Anh Luong*
Tuan Anh Luong
Affiliation: De Montfort University, Leicester Castle Business School, Leicester, United Kingdom
 0000-0001-9569-3564
Article | Year: 2025 | Pages: 89 - 127 | Volume: 49 | Issue: 1 Received: April 28, 2024 | Accepted: September 16, 2024 | Published online: March 10, 2025
|
FULL ARTICLE
FIGURES & DATA
REFERENCES
CROSSMARK POLICY
METRICS
LICENCING
PDF
|
ISCO-08 major
groups
|
Skill level
|
Levels of
education
|
|
1. Managers,
senior officials and legislators
|
4
|
Second stage of
tertiary (leading to an advanced research qualification)
First stage of
tertiary education, first degree (medium duration)
|
|
2. Professionals
|
|
3. Technicians
and associate professionals
|
3
|
First stage of
tertiary (short or medium duration)
|
|
4. Clerks
|
2
|
Post-secondary,
non-tertiary
Upper secondary
Lower secondary
|
|
5. Service and
sales workers
|
|
6. Skilled
agricultural and fishery workers
|
|
7. Craft and
related trades workers
|
|
8. Plant and
machine operators, and assemblers
|
|
9. Elementary
occupations
|
1
|
Primary
|
*Absolute occupational mobility (workers 17-67). Source: Analysis of cross-sectional and longitudinal microdata from the EU-SILC survey (authors’
calculations).
Source: Analysis of cross-sectional and longitudinal microdata from the EU-SILC survey (authors’
calculations).
Source: Analysis of cross-sectional and longitudinal microdata from the EU-SILC survey (authors’
calculations).
Source: Analysis of cross-sectional and longitudinal microdata from the EU-SILC survey (authors’
calculations).
Source: Analysis of cross-sectional and longitudinal microdata from the EU-SILC survey (authors’
calculations).
|
From upper skill level to middling or lower
|
2011-12
|
2012-13
|
2013-14
|
2014-15
|
2015-16
|
2016-17
|
2017-18
|
2018-19
|
|
Marital
|
-0.004
|
-0.001
|
0.015
|
-0.001
|
-0.003
|
0.001
|
-0.001
|
-0.007**
|
|
(0.010)
|
(0.008)
|
(0.013)
|
(0.005)
|
(0.003)
|
(0.003)
|
(0.003)
|
(0.003)
|
|
Female
|
-0.012
|
-0.006
|
-0.014
|
-0.001
|
-0.002
|
-0.005*
|
-0.002
|
0.015***
|
|
(0.009)
|
(0.007)
|
(0.013)
|
(0.005)
|
(0.003)
|
(0.003)
|
(0.002)
|
(0.003)
|
|
Tertiary
|
0.075***
|
0.050***
|
0.060
|
0.030***
|
0.028***
|
0.040***
|
0.036***
|
0.037***
|
|
(0.009)
|
(0.008)
|
(0.037)
|
(0.005)
|
(0.003)
|
(0.003)
|
(0.002)
|
(0.003)
|
|
Overqualified*tertiary
|
-0.177***
|
-0.187***
|
-0.107***
|
-0.080***
|
-0.071***
|
-0.081***
|
-0.071***
|
-0.084***
|
|
0.034
|
(0.039)
|
(0.019)
|
(0.013)
|
(0.009)
|
(0.007)
|
(0.007)
|
(0.009)
|
|
Underqualified*secondary
|
0.176***
|
0.149***
|
0.195
|
0.085***
|
0.067***
|
0.080***
|
0.062***
|
0.069***
|
|
(0.013)
|
(0.015)
|
(0.912)
|
(0.008)
|
(0.006)
|
(0.006)
|
(0.004)
|
(0.005)
|
|
Years of experience
|
-0.001***
|
0.0001
|
-0.001
|
-0.001***
|
-0.001***
|
-0.001***
|
-0.001***
|
-0.001***
|
|
(0.0006)
|
(0.0004)
|
(0.0009)
|
(0.0003)
|
(0.0002)
|
(0.0002)
|
(0.0001)
|
(0.0002)
|
|
Current education
|
-0.089*
|
-0.004
|
-0.066
|
-0.005
|
-0.030*
|
-0.006
|
-0.007
|
-0.006
|
|
(0.045)
|
(0.025)
|
(0.043)
|
(0.016)
|
(0.017)
|
(0.011)
|
(0.009)
|
(0.010)
|
|
Young (17-30)
|
-0.020*
|
0.034**
|
-0.004
|
-0.005
|
-0.008**
|
-0.001
|
-0.003
|
-0.005
|
|
(0.012)
|
(0.017)
|
(0.025)
|
(0.007)
|
(0.003)
|
(0.005)
|
(0.004)
|
(0.004)
|
|
Old (50-67)
|
0.009
|
-0.004
|
-0.014
|
0.002
|
0.015***
|
0.005
|
0.008**
|
0.008*
|
|
(0.014)
|
(0.009)
|
(0.012)
|
(0.007)
|
(0.005)
|
(0.004)
|
(0.004)
|
(0.004)
|
The symbols *, ** and *** denote statistical significance at 10%, 5% and 1%. Robust standard errors in parentheses. Source: Analysis of cross-sectional and longitudinal microdata from the EU-SILC survey (authors’ calculations).
|
From a lower skill level to an upper
|
2011-12
|
2012-13
|
2013-14
|
2014-15
|
2015-16
|
2016-17
|
2017-18
|
2018-19
|
|
Marital
|
-0.008
|
0.022***
|
-0.001
|
-0.001
|
-0.003
|
0.002
|
-0.005
|
-0.002
|
|
(0.009)
|
(0.008)
|
(0.005)
|
(0.005)
|
(0.004)
|
(0.004)
|
(0.003)
|
(0.004)
|
|
Female
|
-0.001
|
-0.016**
|
-0.001
|
-0.001
|
-0.004
|
0.002
|
0.007**
|
0.005
|
|
(0.008)
|
(0.007)
|
(0.018)
|
(0.005)
|
(0.003)
|
(0.004)
|
(0.003)
|
(0.004)
|
|
Tertiary
|
-0.026**
|
-0.004
|
-0.003
|
-0.004
|
-0.056***
|
-0.046***
|
-0.055***
|
-0.020***
|
|
(0.012)
|
(0.010)
|
(0.065)
|
(0.007)
|
(0.006)
|
(0.006)
|
(0.005)
|
(0.006)
|
|
Overqualified*tertiary
|
0.098***
|
0.109***
|
0.047
|
0.069***
|
0.057***
|
0.085***
|
0.083***
|
0.066***
|
|
(0.014)
|
(0.012)
|
(0.918)
|
(0.007)
|
(0.007)
|
(0.007)
|
(0.006)
|
(0.007)
|
|
Underqualified*secondary
|
-0.017
|
-0.071
|
(-0.047)
|
-0.016
|
-0.034*
|
-0.094***
|
-0.044***
|
-0.054***
|
|
(0.022)
|
(0.045)
|
(0.107)
|
(0.021)
|
(0.020)
|
(0.030)
|
(0.015)
|
(0.019)
|
|
Years of experience
|
-0.001**
|
-0.001
|
-0.001
|
-0.001
|
-0.001***
|
-0.001
|
-0.001***
|
-0.001***
|
|
(0.0005)
|
(0.001)
|
(0.001)
|
(0.001)
|
(0.0002)
|
(0.001)
|
(0.0002)
|
(0.0002)
|
|
Current education
|
-0.067
|
0.051**
|
0.014
|
-0.016
|
-0.007
|
0.015
|
0.019**
|
0.004
|
|
(0.056)
|
(0.021)
|
(0.027)
|
(0.022)
|
(0.014)
|
(0.014)
|
(0.008)
|
(0.013)
|
|
Young (17-30)
|
-0.034***
|
-0.009
|
-0.012
|
-0.018***
|
-0.002
|
-0.008
|
-0.008**
|
0.001
|
|
(0.008)
|
(0.011)
|
(0.241)
|
(0.006)
|
(0.004)
|
(0.007)
|
(0.003)
|
(0.007)
|
|
Old (50-67)
|
0.014
|
-0.010
|
0.002
|
-0.005
|
0.010**
|
-0.007
|
0.015***
|
0.004
|
|
(0.013)
|
(0.009)
|
(0.042)
|
(0.007)
|
(0.005)
|
(0.005)
|
(0.004)
|
(0.006)
|
|
Obs.
|
3,501
|
3,511
|
4,614
|
5,912
|
9,894
|
13,965
|
14,898
|
11,379
|
The symbols *, ** and *** denote statistical significance at 10%, 5% and 1%. Robust standard errors in parentheses. Source: Analysis of cross-sectional and longitudinal microdata from the EU-SILC survey (authors’ calculations).
Source: Analysis of cross-sectional and longitudinal microdata from the EU-SILC survey (authors’
calculations).
Source: Analysis of cross-sectional and longitudinal microdata from the EU-SILC survey (authors’
calculations).
|
Overeducated
|
Long-term
overeducated
|
|
Young<35
|
0.242
|
0.186
|
0.370**
|
0.343*
|
|
(0.159)
|
(0.179)
|
(0.177)
|
(0.199)
|
|
Female
|
-0.293***
|
-0.340***
|
-0.269**
|
-0.330**
|
|
(0.102)
|
(0.118)
|
(0.116)
|
(0.135)
|
|
Marital
|
0.337***
|
0.285**
|
0.364**
|
0.323**
|
|
(0.130)
|
(0.144)
|
(0.146)
|
(0.160)
|
|
Secondary
|
-0.450***
|
-0.294
|
-0.606***
|
-0.407***
|
|
(0.170)
|
(0.205)
|
(0.198)
|
(0.242)
|
|
Bachelor
|
2.259***
|
2.548***
|
2.403***
|
2.688***
|
|
(0.175)
|
(0.215)
|
(0.201)
|
(0.251)
|
|
Master
|
1.278***
|
1.580***
|
1.175***
|
1.395***
|
|
(0.232)
|
(0.272)
|
(0.271)
|
(0.325)
|
|
In education
|
0.422
|
0.174
|
0.505
|
0.169
|
|
(0.281)
|
(0.322)
|
(0.323)
|
(0.369)
|
|
Experience
|
-0.018**
|
-0.021**
|
-0.018**
|
-0.018*
|
|
(0.007)
|
(0.008)
|
(0.008)
|
(0.009)
|
|
Employees
|
0.581***
|
0.680***
|
0.454***
|
0.535***
|
|
(0.105)
|
(0.124)
|
(0.117)
|
(0.139)
|
|
Age began the first job
|
-0.027*
|
-0.046**
|
-0.046**
|
-.0585***
|
|
(0.014)
|
(0.018)
|
(0.177)
|
(0.022)
|
|
Parental
education (reference: primary)
|
|
Secondary
|
-0.321**
|
-0.284**
|
-0.461***
|
-0.351**
|
|
(0.125)
|
(0.140)
|
(0.140)
|
(0.156)
|
|
Tertiary
|
-0.339*
|
-0.338
|
-0.273
|
-0.221
|
|
(0.197)
|
(0.222)
|
(0.211)
|
(0.242)
|
|
Parental
occupational (reference: skill level 1)
|
|
Skill level 2
|
-0.093
|
-0.355
|
-0.044
|
-0.334*
|
|
(0.127)
|
(0.173)
|
(0.143)
|
(0.198)
|
|
Skill level 3
|
0.191
|
0.085
|
0.115
|
-0.015
|
|
(0.260)
|
(0.349)
|
(0.276)
|
(0.381)
|
|
Skill level 4
|
-0.252
|
-0.451
|
-0.577**
|
-0.923***
|
|
(0.257)
|
(0.297)
|
(0.288)
|
(0.344)
|
|
Living in cities
|
|
-0.292**
|
|
-0.335**
|
|
(0.126)
|
|
(0.142)
|
|
_cons
|
-2.27508
|
-1.126503
|
-2.36122
|
-1.190575
|
|
Obs.
|
3,055
|
2,304
|
2,835
|
2,122
|
Robust standard errors in parentheses. Source: Analysis of cross-sectional and longitudinal microdata from the EU-SILC survey (authors’
calculations).
|
ISCO-08
|
Job quality tiers
|
Mean annual wages in 2011
(in thousand €)
|
|
2
Professionals
|
High-paid jobs (ISCO 1-2)
Upper-middle income
|
19.4
|
|
1
Managers
|
18.5
|
|
3
Technicians and associate professionals
|
Mid-low paid jobs (ISCO 3-4-5-7-8)
Middle income
|
16.3
|
|
8
Plant and machine operators and assemblers
|
14.6
|
|
4
Clerical support workers
|
14.0
|
|
7
Craft and related trades workers
|
11.6
|
|
5
Services and sales workers
|
11.2
|
|
6
Skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery workers
|
Low-paid jobs (ISCO 6-9)
Lower middle income
|
8.9
|
|
9
Elementary occupations
|
8.3
|
|
|
Status/Skill level in year t+1
|
|
Year t
|
Unemployed
|
Level 1
|
Level 2
|
Level 3
|
Level 4
|
|
Unemployed
|
i1j1
|
i1j2
|
i1j3
|
i1j4
|
i1j5
|
|
Level 1
|
i2j1
|
i2j2
|
i2j3
|
i2j4
|
i2j5
|
|
Level 2
|
i3j1
|
i3j2
|
i3j3
|
i3j4
|
i3j5
|
|
Level 3
|
i4j1
|
i4j2
|
i4j3
|
i4j4
|
i4j5
|
|
Level 4
|
i5j1
|
i5j2
|
i5j3
|
i5j4
|
i5j5
|
Source: Pohlig (2021).
|
Skill levels
|
2011-12
|
2012-13
|
2013-14
|
2014-15
|
2015-16
|
2016-17
|
2017-18
|
2018-19
|
|
Upward
|
6.4
|
6.4
|
5.7
|
5.0
|
4.3
|
7.0
|
5.1
|
6.0
|
|
Downward
|
10.1
|
7.9
|
8.4
|
5.3
|
4.0
|
4.9
|
4.2
|
4.8
|
|
Immobility
|
83.4
|
85.7
|
85.8
|
89.6
|
91.7
|
88.0
|
90.7
|
89.2
|
|
Wage levels
|
2011-12
|
2012-13
|
2013-14
|
2014-15
|
2015-16
|
2016-17
|
2017-18
|
2018-19
|
|
Upward
|
5.1
|
4.5
|
4.4
|
3.8
|
3.8
|
6.4
|
4.4
|
4.9
|
|
Downward
|
8.2
|
6.9
|
7.0
|
4.6
|
3.4
|
3.9
|
3.7
|
4.1
|
|
Immobility
|
86.6
|
88.6
|
88.6
|
91.5
|
92.8
|
89.8
|
91.9
|
91.0
|
|
2008-09
|
2009-10
|
2010-11
|
2011-12
|
2012-13
|
2013-14
|
2014-15
|
2015-16
|
2016-17
|
2017-18
|
2018-19
|
|
Upward
|
|
|
|
9.1
|
9.5
|
9.1
|
9.2
|
7.8
|
11.2
|
8.6
|
10.7
|
|
Downward
|
|
|
|
11.0
|
10.1
|
10.5
|
6.1
|
4.9
|
6.0
|
5.7
|
5.9
|
|
Unemployed in
our sample
|
|
|
|
17.9
|
20.5
|
23.1
|
24.3
|
20.3
|
18.6
|
15.9
|
13.8
|
|
Immobility
|
|
|
|
61.9
|
59.9
|
57.2
|
60.4
|
66.9
|
64.2
|
69.8
|
69.6
|
|
Official
unemployment rate
|
9.5
|
12.7
|
17.8
|
24.3
|
27.3
|
26.4
|
24.9
|
23.5
|
21.4
|
19.3
|
17.3
|
|
|
|
|
Year 2012
|
|
Unemployed
|
Skill level
|
Total
|
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
|
Year 2011
|
Unemployed
|
77.19
|
4.56
|
16.32
|
0.88
|
1.05
|
100
|
|
Skill level
|
1
|
8.75
|
63.33
|
27.08
|
0.83
|
0
|
100
|
|
2
|
4.48
|
3.39
|
86.88
|
4.65
|
0.6
|
100
|
|
3
|
4.49
|
1.43
|
33.27
|
55.1
|
5.71
|
100
|
|
4
|
2.35
|
0
|
6.1
|
5.16
|
86.38
|
100
|
|
|
|
|
Year 2013
|
|
|
|
|
Unemployed
|
Skill level
|
Total
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
|
Year 2012
|
|
Unemployed
|
79.71
|
3.01
|
14.1
|
1.11
|
2.06
|
100
|
|
Skill level
|
1
|
10.08
|
74.03
|
15.5
|
0.39
|
0
|
100
|
|
2
|
5.38
|
2.48
|
86.08
|
4.75
|
1.32
|
100
|
|
3
|
2.89
|
1.05
|
33.07
|
55.91
|
7.09
|
100
|
|
4
|
3.38
|
0
|
3.6
|
3.83
|
89.19
|
100
|
|
|
|
|
Year 2014
|
|
|
|
|
Unemployed
|
Skill level
|
Total
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
|
Year 2013
|
|
Unemployed
|
79.33
|
4.18
|
13.24
|
1.32
|
1.93
|
100
|
|
Skill level
|
1
|
11.34
|
75.26
|
12.37
|
0.69
|
0.34
|
100
|
|
2
|
6.12
|
3.58
|
86.34
|
3.08
|
0.87
|
100
|
|
3
|
3.6
|
0.45
|
29.66
|
58.43
|
7.87
|
100
|
|
4
|
4.34
|
0.14
|
3.93
|
6.78
|
84.8
|
100
|
|
|
|
|
Year 2015
|
|
|
|
|
Unemployed
|
Skill level
|
Total
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
|
Year 2014
|
|
Unemployed
|
79.65
|
3.09
|
12.93
|
1.91
|
2.42
|
100
|
|
Skill level
|
1
|
8.75
|
78.51
|
11.41
|
0.27
|
1.06
|
100
|
|
2
|
4.04
|
2.29
|
90.48
|
2.09
|
1.1
|
100
|
|
3
|
2.79
|
0.37
|
14.71
|
70.95
|
11.17
|
100
|
|
4
|
1.07
|
0
|
2.15
|
4.83
|
91.95
|
100
|
|
Occupational
categories
|
2011
|
2012
|
2012b
|
2013
|
2013b
|
2014
|
2014b
|
2015
|
2015b
|
2016
|
2016b
|
2017
|
2017b
|
2018
|
2018b
|
2019
|
|
Managers
|
8.3
|
5.9
|
5.5
|
3.2
|
3.4
|
2.1
|
1.8
|
1.5
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
1.9
|
3.5
|
4.0
|
4.2
|
4.6
|
4.6
|
|
Professionals
|
13.4
|
13.1
|
14.2
|
14.5
|
17.6
|
17.3
|
18.1
|
18.8
|
17.7
|
17.5
|
15.9
|
16.7
|
17.0
|
16.8
|
16.2
|
16.5
|
|
Technicians
|
6.4
|
5.8
|
5.8
|
6.9
|
8.0
|
8.3
|
8.5
|
8.3
|
8.5
|
8.1
|
6.8
|
6.1
|
5.6
|
6.0
|
5.8
|
6.1
|
|
Clerks
|
10.5
|
11.6
|
12.7
|
11.6
|
12.3
|
11.3
|
11.7
|
11.5
|
10.6
|
10.4
|
11.5
|
11.8
|
11.5
|
11.3
|
11.0
|
10.7
|
|
Service
workers
|
16.9
|
19.2
|
19.5
|
22.1
|
21.5
|
23.0
|
23.0
|
22.9
|
24.1
|
25.2
|
26.5
|
24.4
|
23.5
|
23.8
|
22.7
|
22.4
|
|
Skilled
workers
|
15.4
|
15.2
|
13.5
|
13.4
|
10.4
|
10.1
|
10.1
|
10.4
|
11.3
|
11.6
|
12.0
|
12.0
|
12.8
|
12.7
|
13.8
|
13.8
|
|
Craft
workers
|
14.8
|
14.0
|
13.9
|
13.4
|
12.9
|
12.6
|
12.0
|
11.1
|
10.4
|
10.3
|
10.0
|
10.0
|
10.5
|
10.7
|
11.1
|
11.3
|
|
Plant
operators etc
|
6.7
|
6.3
|
6.6
|
6.0
|
5.6
|
5.7
|
5.8
|
5.7
|
5.8
|
6.2
|
6.2
|
6.6
|
6.5
|
6.5
|
6.1
|
6.3
|
|
Elementary
occupations
|
8.3
|
8.9
|
8.2
|
8.9
|
8.2
|
9.5
|
9.0
|
9.8
|
10.0
|
9.1
|
9.1
|
8.9
|
8.6
|
7.9
|
8.8
|
8.3
|
|
Obs.
|
3,501
|
3,501
|
3,511
|
3,511
|
4,614
|
4,614
|
5,912
|
5,912
|
9,894
|
9,894
|
13,967
|
13,967
|
14,901
|
14,901
|
11,395
|
11,395
|
Source: Analysis of cross-sectional and longitudinal microdata from the EU-SILC survey (authors’
calculations).
Source: Analysis of cross-sectional and longitudinal microdata from the EU-SILC survey (authors’
calculations).
|
Remaining in the same level
|
|
2011-12
|
2012-13
|
2013-14
|
2014-15
|
2015-16
|
2016-17
|
2017-18
|
2018-19
|
|
Marital
|
0.010
|
-0.022
|
-0.022
|
0.002
|
0.010
|
-0.001
|
0.005
|
0.008
|
|
Female
|
0.009
|
0.009
|
0.010
|
-0.007
|
0.000
|
-0.016
|
-0.007
|
-0.027
|
|
Tertiary
|
-0.200
|
-0.150
|
-0.169
|
-0.109
|
-0.050
|
-0.105
|
-0.062
|
-0.121
|
|
Underqualified
|
-0.220
|
-0.189
|
-0.152
|
-0.098
|
-0.041
|
-0.072
|
-0.056
|
-0.048
|
|
Qualified(ref)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Overqualified
|
0.032
|
0.008
|
0.059
|
0.038
|
0.032
|
0.043
|
0.009
|
0.049
|
|
Years of experience
|
0.003
|
0.001
|
0.001
|
0.001
|
0.002
|
0.001
|
0.001
|
0.001
|
|
Current education
|
0.105
|
-0.017
|
0.019
|
0.017
|
0.024
|
-0.013
|
-0.002
|
-0.032
|
|
Young (17-30)
|
0.053
|
-0.011
|
0.020
|
0.025
|
0.016
|
0.004
|
0.008
|
0.011
|
|
Middle (31-50) ref.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Old (50-67)
|
0.007
|
0.009
|
0.016
|
0.008
|
-0.017
|
0.002
|
-0.012
|
-0.007
|
|
From upper skilled level to middling or
lower
|
|
Marital
|
-0.005
|
0.002
|
0.020
|
-0.005
|
-0.005
|
-0.001
|
0.000
|
-0.007
|
|
Female
|
-0.009
|
-0.005
|
-0.017
|
0.000
|
0.002
|
0.001
|
-0.003
|
0.014
|
|
Tertiary
|
0.145
|
0.097
|
0.108
|
0.045
|
0.033
|
0.048
|
0.036
|
0.056
|
|
Underqualified
|
0.247
|
0.225
|
0.190
|
0.102
|
0.057
|
0.096
|
0.077
|
0.078
|
|
Qualified(ref)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Overqualified
|
-0.043
|
-0.048
|
-0.052
|
-0.039
|
-0.033
|
-0.036
|
-0.023
|
-0.032
|
|
Years of experience
|
-0.003
|
-0.001
|
-0.001
|
-0.002
|
-0.001
|
-0.001
|
-0.001
|
-0.001
|
|
Current education
|
-0.073
|
-0.021
|
-0.035
|
-0.022
|
-0.025
|
-0.015
|
-0.021
|
0.008
|
|
Young (17-30)
|
-0.036
|
0.010
|
-0.005
|
-0.011
|
-0.010
|
0.001
|
-0.004
|
-0.008
|
|
Middle (31-50) ref.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Old (50-67)
|
-0.003
|
-0.011
|
-0.021
|
-0.002
|
0.009
|
0.007
|
0.003
|
0.006
|
|
From lower skilled level to upper
|
|
Marital
|
-0.005
|
0.021
|
0.002
|
0.003
|
-0.005
|
0.002
|
-0.005
|
-0.001
|
|
Female
|
-0.001
|
-0.003
|
0.008
|
0.007
|
-0.001
|
0.015
|
0.010
|
0.013
|
|
Tertiary
|
0.055
|
0.053
|
0.062
|
0.065
|
0.017
|
0.057
|
0.026
|
0.065
|
|
Underqualified
|
-0.027
|
-0.035
|
-0.038
|
-0.004
|
-0.016
|
-0.024
|
-0.021
|
-0.030
|
|
Qualified(ref)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Overqualified
|
0.011
|
0.040
|
-0.007
|
0.001
|
0.001
|
-0.007
|
0.014
|
-0.018
|
|
Years of experience
|
0.000
|
0.000
|
0.000
|
0.000
|
0.000
|
0.001
|
0.000
|
0.000
|
|
Current education
|
-0.032
|
0.038
|
0.016
|
0.005
|
0.001
|
0.028
|
0.022
|
0.024
|
|
Young (17-30)
|
-0.017
|
0.001
|
-0.015
|
-0.014
|
-0.006
|
-0.004
|
-0.004
|
-0.003
|
|
Middle (31-50) ref.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Old (50-67)
|
-0.004
|
0.002
|
0.005
|
-0.005
|
0.008
|
-0.008
|
0.008
|
0.001
|
Notes: Bold coefficients are significant at the 10 percent level or better. Dependent variable: mobility between skilled levels. Source: Analysis of cross-sectional and longitudinal microdata from the EU-SILC survey (authors’ calculations).
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
2018
|
2019
|
|
Skill level 1
|
8.1
|
8.2
|
8.8
|
9.9
|
10.4
|
9.3
|
8.9
|
8.4
|
8.4
|
|
Primary
|
19.3
|
18.3
|
14.8
|
14.1
|
13.8
|
13.7
|
13.8
|
13.1
|
14.6
|
|
Mismatch in
low level
|
-11.2
|
-10.1
|
-6.0
|
-4.2
|
-3.4
|
-4.4
|
-4.9
|
-4.8
|
-6.3
|
|
Skill level 2
|
62.6
|
66.4
|
63.3
|
63.1
|
62.8
|
65.7
|
64.4
|
63.6
|
64.1
|
|
Secondary-Post
Secondary
|
53.8
|
54.5
|
54.2
|
54.0
|
53.9
|
54.3
|
54.9
|
55.4
|
54.5
|
|
Mismatch in
medium level
|
8.8
|
11.9
|
9.1
|
9.1
|
8.9
|
11.4
|
9.4
|
8.2
|
9.7
|
|
3rd-4th level
|
29.2
|
25.3
|
27.8
|
26.9
|
26.8
|
25.0
|
26.7
|
28.0
|
27.5
|
|
Tertiary
|
26.8
|
27.0
|
31.0
|
31.4
|
31.5
|
31.3
|
30.5
|
30.4
|
29.9
|
|
Overeducation
in high level
|
2.4
|
-1.7
|
-3.2
|
-4.4
|
-4.8
|
-6.3
|
-3.7
|
-2.3
|
-2.4
|
Table 1Mapping of ISCO-08 major groups to skill levels and skill levels to ISCED-97 levels of education DISPLAY Table
Figure 1Patterns of intra-generational occupational mobility (skilled levels) across the 3 bailout programs (in %)* DISPLAY Figure
Figure 2Patterns of intra-generational occupational mobility (paid-job tiers) across the 3 bailout programs (in %) DISPLAY Figure
Figure 3Patterns of intra-generational employment mobility (%) DISPLAY Figure
Figure 4The distribution of wage-job levels between 2011-2019 (%) DISPLAY Figure
Figure 5The direction of movements across the wage-job levels (%) DISPLAY Figure
Table 2Estimations of downward mobility* DISPLAY Table
Table 3Estimations of upward mobility DISPLAY Table
Figure 6Coefficients for educational variables of downward mobility with standard deviations (reference group immobility) DISPLAY Figure
Figure 7Coefficients for educational variables of upward mobility with standard deviations (reference group immobility) DISPLAY Figure
Table 4Logit regressions of overeducated workers DISPLAY Table
Table A1Mapping of the three job quality tiers based on average annual salaries DISPLAY Table
Table A2Structure of i x j design matrices6 DISPLAY Table
Table A3Absolute mobility indices of occupational skill levels (in %) DISPLAY Table
Table A4Absolute mobility indices of job-paid levels (in %) DISPLAY Table
Table A5Absolute mobility indices of employment levels (in %) DISPLAY Table
Table A6Employment mobility between 2011-2012 (in %) DISPLAY Table
Table A7Employment mobility between 2012-2013 (in %) DISPLAY Table
Table A8Employment mobility between 2013-2014 (in %) DISPLAY Table
Table A9Employment mobility between 2014-2015 (in %) DISPLAY Table
Table A10The distribution of occupations ISCO (in %) DISPLAY Table
Figure A1Absolute occupational indices for people between 30-60 years old (in %) DISPLAY Figure
Figure A2Absolute employment indices for people between 30-60 years old (in %) DISPLAY Figure
Table A11Multinomial logistic regressions results on the middle skill levels DISPLAY Table
Figure A3The evolution of high-skilled occupations and tertiary graduates during 2008-2020 for people between 25-64 years old (in %) DISPLAY Figure
Table A12The percentages of each skill level of occupation and the proportion of graduates from each educational level DISPLAY Table
* The authors would like to thank two reviewers for their valuable help in completing this article.
1 EU-SILC (European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions) datasets used ISCO-08 to describe the occupation of the responders. The nine occupational classes are shown in table 1. Following the group definitions of LO, they arrange occupations in skilled groups as the second column presents (ILO,  2012; Pohlig, 2021).
2 The year 2011 can be characterized as the year in which EU-SILC survey informs us about the situation on income mobility before the first economic adjustment program applied due to the data referred to the previous year. Therefore, the 2011 module included information about households and individuals who were interviewed in 2010 and declared their income for this year. Therefore, the effects of the first memorandum policies had not had any impact. Further, 2019 can be characterized as the year which informs us about the situation at the end of the bailout programs.
3 How skill levels are defined: the nature of the work performed in an occupation with respect to the characteristic tasks and duties defined for each ISCO-08 level. The level of formal education required for the competent execution of the relevant tasks. The amount of informal on-the-job training and/or prior experience in a related position necessary for the competent performance of duties (ILO, 2012).
4 Stata is a complete, integrated software package that provides all your data science needs-data manipulation, visualization, statistics, and automated reporting.
5 Middle age group 30-50 is excluded to serve as reference category.
|
|
March, 2025
I/2025
|
