Is external debt an impediment to the South African economy?
https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.48.1.5 | Published online: March 1, 2024 Figure 1
Gross domestic product at market price and external debt as % of GDP trends in SA Table 1
Description of the variables
Source: South African Reserve Bank; World Bank. Table 2
Descriptive statistics
Note: Statistically significant at *10%, **5%, ***1%. Source: Author’s own computation. Table 3
BDS test for nonlinearity
Note: Statistically significant at *10%, **5%, ***1%. Source: Author’s own computation. Table 4
Bierens and Breitung nonparametric unit root test
Note: Statistically significant at *10%, **5%, ***1%. The probability values are in brackets. Source: Author’s own computation. Table 5
Zivot-Andrews unit root test
Note: Statistically significant at *10%, **5%, ***1%. The break years are in brackets. Source: Author’s own computation. Table 6
NARDL bounds cointegration test
Note: Statistically significant at *10%, **5%, ***1%. Source: Author’s own computation. Table 7
Breitung’s nonparametric cointegration test
Note: Statistically significant at *10%, **5%, ***1%. Source: Author’s own computation. Table 8
Long-run NARDL results Dependent variable: GDP
Note: Statistically significant at *10%, **5%, ***1%. Source: Author’s own computation. Table 9
Short-run NARDL results Dependent variable: ΔGDP
Note: Statistically significant at *10%, **5%, ***1%. Source: Author’s own computation. Table 10
Long run and short run asymmetry
Note: Statistically significant at *10%, **5%, ***1%. Source: Author’s own computation. Table 11
Diagnostic tests
Note: Statistically significant at *10%, **5%, ***1%. Source: Author’s own computation. Figure 2
CUSUM graph Figure 3
Dynamic multiplier graph EXTERNAL_DEBT on GDP shock evolution
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