Returns to schooling in the Portuguese economy: a reassessment

Campos, Maria Manuel; Reis, Hugo

doi:10.3326/pse.42.2.11.

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Returns to schooling in the Portuguese economy: a reassessment

Maria Manuel Campos*

Hugo Reis*

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https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.42.2.11

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Table 1
Descriptive statistics

		1986	1991	1996	2000	2005	2010	2013
Women	Education (years)	5.73	6.54	7.37	8.16	9.17	10.09	10.39
	Education (years)	[3.42]	[3.57]	[3.84]	[4.05]	[4.26]	[4.38]	[4.38]
	Age (years)	32.34	32.24	34.18	35.08	36.56	38.06	39.37
	Age (years)	[10.2]	[10.26]	[10.15]	[10.15]	[10.17]	[10.31]	[10.21]
	Tenure (years)	8.55	7.34	7.77	7.21	7.21	7.61	8.53
	Tenure (years)	[7.15]	[7.83]	[7.98]	[7.97]	[7.66]	[7.92]	[8.2]
	No. obs.	327 634	467 428	584 109	714 836	836 568	923 898	901 793
	% of total	33.1	36.7	39.9	41.5	42.2	45.2	47.3
Men	Education (years)	5.50	6.17	6.89	7.40	8.18	9.03	9.45
	Education (years)	[3.33]	[3.5]	[3.7]	[3.81]	[3.96]	[4.08]	[4.08]
	Age (years)	36.30	36.35	36.88	37.27	37.79	39.01	39.92
	Age (years)	[11.65]	[11.74]	[11.32]	[11.16]	[10.84]	[10.68]	[10.5]
	Tenure (years)	9.56	8.93	8.84	8.11	7.73	8.14	8.89
	Tenure (years)	[8.05]	[8.71]	[8.62]	[8.52]	[8.07]	[8.27]	[8.54]
	No. obs.	662 723	806 480	880 628	1 009 561	1 144 560	1 118 236	1 003 012
	% of total	66.9	63.3	60.1	58.5	57.8	54.8	52.7
Total	Education (years)	5.6	6.31	7.08	7.71	8.60	9.51	9.9
	Education (years)	[3.36]	[3.53]	[3.76]	[3.93]	[4.12]	[4.25]	[4.25]
	Age (years)	34.99	34.84	35.80	36.36	37.27	38.58	39.66
	Age (years)	[11.35]	[11.39]	[10.95]	[10.8]	[10.58]	[10.53]	[10.37]
	Tenure (years)	9.23	8.34	8.42	7.73	7.51	7.90	8.72
	Tenure (years)	[3.36]	[3.53]	[3.76]	[3.93]	[4.12]	[4.25]	[4.25]
	No. obs.	990,357	1,273,908	1,464,737	1,724,397	1,981,128	2,042,134	1,904,805

Notes: Unless otherwise specified, the table reports averages (and standard-deviations in brackets).

Variable “tenure” corresponds to the number of years working in the current firm.

Source: Authors’ calculations based on Quadros de Pessoal.

Table 2
Wage regressions – OLS

	Baseline specification (2)					Specification (2) with additional controls
	1986	1996	2005	2010	2013	1986	1996	2005	2010	2013
Educ. (years)	0.0608***	0.0719***	0.0730***	0.0715***	0.0706***	0.0478***	0.0580***	0.0640***	0.0638***	0.0637***
Educ. (years)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)
Age	0.0580***	0.0458***	0.0413***	0.0404***	0.0423***	0.0489***	0.0406***	0.0382***	0.0363***	0.0374***
Age	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)
Age sqrd.	-0.0006***	-0.0004***	-0.0004***	-0.0004***	-0.0004***	-0.0005***	-0.0004***	-0.0003***	-0.0003***	-0.0003***
Age sqrd.	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)
Sex (male=1)	0.1858***	0.2526***	0.2567***	0.2449***	0.2477***	0.1530***	0.1957***	0.2154***	0.2036***	0.1992***
Sex (male=1)	(0.0007)	(0.0006)	(0.0006)	(0.0005)	(0.0006)	(0.0007)	(0.0007)	(0.0006)	(0.0006)	(0.0006)
Firm size (log)	0.0778***	0.0832***	0.0715***	0.0497***	0.0446***	0.0590***	0.0621***	0.0539***	0.0335***	0.0303***
Firm size (log)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)
Tenure	0.0078***	0.0117***	0.0166***	0.0165***	0.0164***	0.0097***	0.0122***	0.0174***	0.0162***	0.0159***
Tenure	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)
Tenure sqrd.	-0.0000***	-0.0002***	-0.0002***	-0.0002***	-0.0001***	-0.0001***	-0.0002***	-0.0003***	-0.0002***	-0.0002***
Tenure sqrd.	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)
Intercept	-2.1323***	-1.9018***	-1.7187***	-1.6105***	-1.7051***	-2.0086***	-1.6877***	-1.5613***	-1.4275***	-1.5136***
Intercept	(0.0033)	(0.0035)	(0.0034)	(0.0035)	(0.0039)	(0.0042)	(0.0043)	(0.0043)	(0.0043)	(0.0046)
Region controls	N	N	N	N	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Industry controls	N	N	N	N	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
R-squared	0.54	0.53	0.49	0.45	0.45	0.63	0.59	0.53	0.5	0.49
N	990215	1464732	1981128	2042134	1904805	990215	1464732	1981128	2042134	1904805

Notes: Coefficients obtained from OLS regressions using specification (2) pooling data for men and women. Standard errors in parentheses.

* p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001.

Source: Authors’ calculations based on Quadros de Pessoal.

Table 3
Wage regressions – Quantile regressions

	1986			1996			2005			2010			2013
	P10	P50	P90	P10	P50	P90	P10	P50	P90	P10	P50	P90	P10	P50	P90
Educ. (years)	0.0385***	0.0611***	0.0762***	0.0394***	0.0719***	0.0887***	0.0371***	0.0732***	0.0902***	0.0326***	0.0716***	0.0885***	0.0309***	0.0709***	0.0881***
Educ. (years)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)
Age	0.0503***	0.0530***	0.0705***	0.0235***	0.0405***	0.0655***	0.0188***	0.0386***	0.0599***	0.0147***	0.0368***	0.0600***	0.0135***	0.0387***	0.0646***
Age	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0004)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0004)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0004)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0004)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0004)
Age sqrd	-0.0006***	-0.0006***	-0.0007***	-0.0002***	-0.0004***	-0.0006***	-0.0002***	-0.0003***	-0.0005***	-0.0001***	-0.0003***	-0.0005***	-0.0001***	-0.0003***	-0.0006***
Age sqrd	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)
Sex (male=1)	0.1522***	0.1906***	0.2174***	0.1710***	0.2575***	0.3158***	0.1533***	0.2568***	0.3393***	0.1244***	0.2407***	0.3268***	0.1206***	0.2391***	0.3379***
Sex (male=1)	(0.0008)	(0.0008)	(0.0015)	(0.0005)	(0.0007)	(0.0014)	(0.0004)	(0.0006)	(0.0012)	(0.0003)	(0.0006)	(0.0012)	(0.0003)	(0.0006)	(0.0012)
Firm size (log)	0.0667***	0.0766***	0.0813***	0.0711***	0.0829***	0.0801***	0.0537***	0.0716***	0.0735***	0.0287***	0.0488***	0.0529***	0.0257***	0.0429***	0.0506***
Firm size (log)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0004)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0003)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0003)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0003)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0003)
Tenure	0.0073***	0.0074***	0.0084***	0.0116***	0.0136***	0.0038***	0.0129***	0.0167***	0.0106***	0.0112***	0.0167***	0.0112***	0.0128***	0.0170***	0.0088***
Tenure	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0003)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0003)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)
Tenure sqrd	-0.0001***	-0.0000***	0	-0.0002***	-0.0002***	0.0001***	-0.0002***	-0.0002***	-0.0001***	-0.0002***	-0.0002***	-0.0000***	-0.0002***	-0.0001***	0.0001***
Tenure sqrd	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)
Intercept	-2.1000***	-2.0584***	-2.1252***	-1.4851***	-1.8398***	-1.9750***	-1.1600***	-1.6994***	-1.8373***	-0.8478***	-1.5666***	-1.7899***	-0.8485***	-1.6566***	-1.9629***
Intercept	(0.0041)	(0.0035)	(0.0066)	(0.0019)	(0.0035)	(0.0073)	(0.0016)	(0.0035)	(0.0073)	(0.0015)	(0.0032)	(0.0077)	(0.0015)	(0.0033)	(0.0085)
N	990215	990215	990215	1464732	1464732	1464732	1981128	1981128	1981128	2042134	2042134	2042134	1904805	1904805	1904805

Notes: Coefficients obtained from QR regressions using specification (3) pooling data for men and women. Standard errors in parentheses.

* p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001.

Source: Authors’ calculations based on Quadros de Pessoal.

Table 4
Wage regressions – OLS

	Baseline specification (4)					Specification (4) with additional controls
	1986	1996	2005	2010	2013	1986	1996	2005	2010	2013
9th grade	0.3309***	0.2824***	0.2127***	0.1936***	0.1832***	0.2360***	0.1966***	0.1663***	0.1577***	0.1508***
9th grade	(0.0011)	(0.0009)	(0.0007)	(0.0007)	(0.0008)	(0.0009)	(0.0008)	(0.0007)	(0.0007)	(0.0008)
Second. educ.	0.4365***	0.4604***	0.4138***	0.3839***	0.3720***	0.3156***	0.3304***	0.3278***	0.3117***	0.3058***
Second. educ.	(0.0016)	(0.0010)	(0.0008)	(0.0008)	(0.0008)	(0.0012)	(0.0009)	(0.0008)	(0.0008)	(0.0008)
Tertiary educ.	0.7643***	0.9508***	0.9356***	0.8767***	0.8496***	0.6521***	0.8005***	0.8321***	0.7883***	0.7697***
Tertiary educ.	(0.0026)	(0.0017)	(0.0011)	(0.0010)	(0.0010)	(0.0019)	(0.0014)	(0.0010)	(0.0009)	(0.0009)
Age	0.0569***	0.0437***	0.0397***	0.0401***	0.0425***	0.0471***	0.0381***	0.0360***	0.0356***	0.0370***
Age	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)
Age sqrd.	-0.0006***	-0.0004***	-0.0004***	-0.0004***	-0.0004***	-0.0005***	-0.0004***	-0.0004***	-0.0003***	-0.0004***
Age sqrd.	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)
Sex (male=1)	0.1947***	0.2543***	0.2581***	0.2484***	0.2525***	0.1606***	0.1964***	0.2167***	0.2068***	0.2030***
Sex (male=1)	(0.0007)	(0.0006)	(0.0005)	(0.0005)	(0.0006)	(0.0007)	(0.0007)	(0.0006)	(0.0006)	(0.0006)
Firm size (log)	0.0784***	0.0841***	0.0713***	0.0500***	0.0450***	0.0584***	0.0620***	0.0532***	0.0333***	0.0303***
Firm size (log)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)
Tenure	0.0068***	0.0123***	0.0179***	0.0173***	0.0169***	0.0087***	0.0127***	0.0187***	0.0170***	0.0164***
Tenure	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)
Tenure sqrd.	0	-0.0002***	-0.0003***	-0.0002***	-0.0001***	-0.0001***	-0.0002***	-0.0003***	-0.0002***	-0.0002***
Tenure sqrd.	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)
Intercept	-1.8229***	-1.4761***	-1.2544***	-1.1626***	-1.2639***	-1.7812***	-1.3597***	-1.1697***	-1.0422***	-1.1261***
Intercept	(0.0033)	(0.0035)	(0.0034)	(0.0035)	(0.0039)	(0.0042)	(0.0043)	(0.0042)	(0.0043)	(0.0046)
Region controls	N	N	N	N	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Industry controls	N	N	N	N	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
R-squared	0.52	0.52	0.49	0.46	0.46	0.61	0.59	0.54	0.51	0.5
N	990215	1464732	1981128	2042134	1904805	990215	1464732	1981128	2042134	1904805

Notes: Coefficients obtained from OLS regressions using specification (4) pooling data for men and women. Standard errors in parentheses.

* p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001.

Source: Authors’ calculations based on Quadros de Pessoal.

Table 5
Wage regressions – Quantile Regressions

	1986			1996			2005			2010			2013
	P10	P50	P90	P10	P50	P90	P10	P50	P90	P10	P50	P90	P10	P50	P90
9^th grade	0.1995***	0.3219***	0.4409***	0.1359***	0.2636***	0.3751***	0.0996***	0.1904***	0.2861***	0.0862***	0.1747***	0.2580***	0.0813***	0.1653***	0.2534***
9^th grade	(0.0013)	(0.0014)	(0.0022)	(0.0009)	(0.0011)	(0.0019)	(0.0006)	(0.0008)	(0.0016)	(0.0004)	(0.0007)	(0.0017)	(0.0004)	(0.0007)	(0.0018)
Second. educ.	0.2628***	0.4312***	0.5866***	0.2364***	0.4497***	0.6192***	0.1955***	0.3962***	0.5699***	0.1635***	0.3548***	0.5352***	0.1530***	0.3418***	0.5285***
Second. educ.	(0.0017)	(0.0020)	(0.0027)	(0.0011)	(0.0012)	(0.0021)	(0.0007)	(0.0009)	(0.0017)	(0.0005)	(0.0008)	(0.0018)	(0.0005)	(0.0008)	(0.0018)
Tertiary educ.	0.5473***	0.8431***	0.8663***	0.6331***	1.0206***	1.1082***	0.6006***	0.9837***	1.1092***	0.4940***	0.9108***	1.0676***	0.4502***	0.8800***	1.0503***
Tertiary educ.	(0.0054)	(0.0029)	(0.0035)	(0.0038)	(0.0021)	(0.0024)	(0.0020)	(0.0013)	(0.0018)	(0.0016)	(0.0011)	(0.0018)	(0.0014)	(0.0010)	(0.0019)
Age	0.0499***	0.0508***	0.0709***	0.0221***	0.0371***	0.0626***	0.0174***	0.0347***	0.0573***	0.0141***	0.0343***	0.0582***	0.0139***	0.0366***	0.0632***
Age	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0004)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0004)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0004)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0004)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0004)
Age sqrd.	-0.0006***	-0.0006***	-0.0008***	-0.0002***	-0.0004***	-0.0006***	-0.0002***	-0.0003***	-0.0005***	-0.0001***	-0.0003***	-0.0005***	-0.0001***	-0.0004***	-0.0006***
Age sqrd.	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)
Sex (male=1)	0.1610***	0.1981***	0.2189***	0.1697***	0.2576***	0.3154***	0.1517***	0.2550***	0.3411***	0.1264***	0.2415***	0.3327***	0.1248***	0.2418***	0.3459***
Sex (male=1)	(0.0008)	(0.0008)	(0.0015)	(0.0005)	(0.0007)	(0.0014)	(0.0005)	(0.0006)	(0.0012)	(0.0004)	(0.0006)	(0.0012)	(0.0004)	(0.0006)	(0.0012)
Firm size (log.)	0.0653***	0.0768***	0.0811***	0.0697***	0.0834***	0.0818***	0.0525***	0.0699***	0.0749***	0.0279***	0.0467***	0.0544***	0.0255***	0.0403***	0.0515***
Firm size (log.)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0004)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0003)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0003)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0003)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0003)
Tenure	0.0067***	0.0062***	0.0076***	0.0112***	0.0145***	0.0047***	0.0132***	0.0182***	0.0121***	0.0116***	0.0173***	0.0122***	0.0136***	0.0166***	0.0094***
Tenure	(0.0002)	(0.0001)	(0.0003)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0003)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)
Tenure sqrd.	-0.0001***	0.0000***	0.0000***	-0.0003***	-0.0002***	0.0001***	-0.0002***	-0.0002***	-0.0001***	-0.0002***	-0.0002***	-0.0000***	-0.0002***	-0.0001***	0.0001***
Tenure sqrd.	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)
Intercept	-1.8962***	-1.7218***	-1.7707***	-1.2250***	-1.3824***	-1.4688***	-0.8965***	-1.1694***	-1.2918***	-0.6226***	-1.0440***	-1.2513***	-0.6578***	-1.1268***	-1.4207***
Intercept	(0.0039)	(0.0034)	(0.0067)	(0.0018)	(0.0035)	(0.0071)	(0.0021)	(0.0034)	(0.0076)	(0.0016)	(0.0028)	(0.0079)	(0.0018)	(0.0030)	(0.0085)
N	990215	990215	990215	1464732	1464732	1464732	1981128	1981128	1981128	2042134	2042134	2042134	1904805	1904805	1904805

Notes: Coefficients obtained from QR regressions using specification (5) pooling data for men and women. Standard errors in parentheses.

* p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001.

Source: Authors’ calculations based on Quadros de Pessoal.

This is an Open Access article distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (CC-BY-NC) which permits non commercial use and redistribution, as long as you give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made.

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