Returns to schooling in the Portuguese economy: a reassessment

Campos, Maria Manuel; Reis, Hugo

doi:10.3326/pse.42.2.11.

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Returns to schooling in the Portuguese economy: a reassessment

Maria Manuel Campos*

Hugo Reis*

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https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.42.2.11

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Table 1
Descriptive statistics

		1986	1991	1996	2000	2005	2010	2013
Women	Education (years)	5.73	6.54	7.37	8.16	9.17	10.09	10.39
	Education (years)	[3.42]	[3.57]	[3.84]	[4.05]	[4.26]	[4.38]	[4.38]
	Age (years)	32.34	32.24	34.18	35.08	36.56	38.06	39.37
	Age (years)	[10.2]	[10.26]	[10.15]	[10.15]	[10.17]	[10.31]	[10.21]
	Tenure (years)	8.55	7.34	7.77	7.21	7.21	7.61	8.53
	Tenure (years)	[7.15]	[7.83]	[7.98]	[7.97]	[7.66]	[7.92]	[8.2]
	No. obs.	327 634	467 428	584 109	714 836	836 568	923 898	901 793
	% of total	33.1	36.7	39.9	41.5	42.2	45.2	47.3
Men	Education (years)	5.50	6.17	6.89	7.40	8.18	9.03	9.45
	Education (years)	[3.33]	[3.5]	[3.7]	[3.81]	[3.96]	[4.08]	[4.08]
	Age (years)	36.30	36.35	36.88	37.27	37.79	39.01	39.92
	Age (years)	[11.65]	[11.74]	[11.32]	[11.16]	[10.84]	[10.68]	[10.5]
	Tenure (years)	9.56	8.93	8.84	8.11	7.73	8.14	8.89
	Tenure (years)	[8.05]	[8.71]	[8.62]	[8.52]	[8.07]	[8.27]	[8.54]
	No. obs.	662 723	806 480	880 628	1 009 561	1 144 560	1 118 236	1 003 012
	% of total	66.9	63.3	60.1	58.5	57.8	54.8	52.7
Total	Education (years)	5.6	6.31	7.08	7.71	8.60	9.51	9.9
	Education (years)	[3.36]	[3.53]	[3.76]	[3.93]	[4.12]	[4.25]	[4.25]
	Age (years)	34.99	34.84	35.80	36.36	37.27	38.58	39.66
	Age (years)	[11.35]	[11.39]	[10.95]	[10.8]	[10.58]	[10.53]	[10.37]
	Tenure (years)	9.23	8.34	8.42	7.73	7.51	7.90	8.72
	Tenure (years)	[3.36]	[3.53]	[3.76]	[3.93]	[4.12]	[4.25]	[4.25]
	No. obs.	990,357	1,273,908	1,464,737	1,724,397	1,981,128	2,042,134	1,904,805

Notes: Unless otherwise specified, the table reports averages (and standard-deviations in brackets).

Variable “tenure” corresponds to the number of years working in the current firm.

Source: Authors’ calculations based on Quadros de Pessoal.

Table 2
Wage regressions – OLS

	Baseline specification (2)					Specification (2) with additional controls
	1986	1996	2005	2010	2013	1986	1996	2005	2010	2013
Educ. (years)	0.0608***	0.0719***	0.0730***	0.0715***	0.0706***	0.0478***	0.0580***	0.0640***	0.0638***	0.0637***
Educ. (years)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)
Age	0.0580***	0.0458***	0.0413***	0.0404***	0.0423***	0.0489***	0.0406***	0.0382***	0.0363***	0.0374***
Age	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)
Age sqrd.	-0.0006***	-0.0004***	-0.0004***	-0.0004***	-0.0004***	-0.0005***	-0.0004***	-0.0003***	-0.0003***	-0.0003***
Age sqrd.	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)
Sex (male=1)	0.1858***	0.2526***	0.2567***	0.2449***	0.2477***	0.1530***	0.1957***	0.2154***	0.2036***	0.1992***
Sex (male=1)	(0.0007)	(0.0006)	(0.0006)	(0.0005)	(0.0006)	(0.0007)	(0.0007)	(0.0006)	(0.0006)	(0.0006)
Firm size (log)	0.0778***	0.0832***	0.0715***	0.0497***	0.0446***	0.0590***	0.0621***	0.0539***	0.0335***	0.0303***
Firm size (log)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)
Tenure	0.0078***	0.0117***	0.0166***	0.0165***	0.0164***	0.0097***	0.0122***	0.0174***	0.0162***	0.0159***
Tenure	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)
Tenure sqrd.	-0.0000***	-0.0002***	-0.0002***	-0.0002***	-0.0001***	-0.0001***	-0.0002***	-0.0003***	-0.0002***	-0.0002***
Tenure sqrd.	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)
Intercept	-2.1323***	-1.9018***	-1.7187***	-1.6105***	-1.7051***	-2.0086***	-1.6877***	-1.5613***	-1.4275***	-1.5136***
Intercept	(0.0033)	(0.0035)	(0.0034)	(0.0035)	(0.0039)	(0.0042)	(0.0043)	(0.0043)	(0.0043)	(0.0046)
Region controls	N	N	N	N	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Industry controls	N	N	N	N	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
R-squared	0.54	0.53	0.49	0.45	0.45	0.63	0.59	0.53	0.5	0.49
N	990215	1464732	1981128	2042134	1904805	990215	1464732	1981128	2042134	1904805

Notes: Coefficients obtained from OLS regressions using specification (2) pooling data for men and women. Standard errors in parentheses.

* p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001.

Source: Authors’ calculations based on Quadros de Pessoal.

Table 3
Wage regressions – Quantile regressions

	1986			1996			2005			2010			2013
	P10	P50	P90	P10	P50	P90	P10	P50	P90	P10	P50	P90	P10	P50	P90
Educ. (years)	0.0385***	0.0611***	0.0762***	0.0394***	0.0719***	0.0887***	0.0371***	0.0732***	0.0902***	0.0326***	0.0716***	0.0885***	0.0309***	0.0709***	0.0881***
Educ. (years)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)
Age	0.0503***	0.0530***	0.0705***	0.0235***	0.0405***	0.0655***	0.0188***	0.0386***	0.0599***	0.0147***	0.0368***	0.0600***	0.0135***	0.0387***	0.0646***
Age	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0004)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0004)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0004)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0004)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0004)
Age sqrd	-0.0006***	-0.0006***	-0.0007***	-0.0002***	-0.0004***	-0.0006***	-0.0002***	-0.0003***	-0.0005***	-0.0001***	-0.0003***	-0.0005***	-0.0001***	-0.0003***	-0.0006***
Age sqrd	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)
Sex (male=1)	0.1522***	0.1906***	0.2174***	0.1710***	0.2575***	0.3158***	0.1533***	0.2568***	0.3393***	0.1244***	0.2407***	0.3268***	0.1206***	0.2391***	0.3379***
Sex (male=1)	(0.0008)	(0.0008)	(0.0015)	(0.0005)	(0.0007)	(0.0014)	(0.0004)	(0.0006)	(0.0012)	(0.0003)	(0.0006)	(0.0012)	(0.0003)	(0.0006)	(0.0012)
Firm size (log)	0.0667***	0.0766***	0.0813***	0.0711***	0.0829***	0.0801***	0.0537***	0.0716***	0.0735***	0.0287***	0.0488***	0.0529***	0.0257***	0.0429***	0.0506***
Firm size (log)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0004)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0003)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0003)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0003)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0003)
Tenure	0.0073***	0.0074***	0.0084***	0.0116***	0.0136***	0.0038***	0.0129***	0.0167***	0.0106***	0.0112***	0.0167***	0.0112***	0.0128***	0.0170***	0.0088***
Tenure	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0003)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0003)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)
Tenure sqrd	-0.0001***	-0.0000***	0	-0.0002***	-0.0002***	0.0001***	-0.0002***	-0.0002***	-0.0001***	-0.0002***	-0.0002***	-0.0000***	-0.0002***	-0.0001***	0.0001***
Tenure sqrd	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)
Intercept	-2.1000***	-2.0584***	-2.1252***	-1.4851***	-1.8398***	-1.9750***	-1.1600***	-1.6994***	-1.8373***	-0.8478***	-1.5666***	-1.7899***	-0.8485***	-1.6566***	-1.9629***
Intercept	(0.0041)	(0.0035)	(0.0066)	(0.0019)	(0.0035)	(0.0073)	(0.0016)	(0.0035)	(0.0073)	(0.0015)	(0.0032)	(0.0077)	(0.0015)	(0.0033)	(0.0085)
N	990215	990215	990215	1464732	1464732	1464732	1981128	1981128	1981128	2042134	2042134	2042134	1904805	1904805	1904805

Notes: Coefficients obtained from QR regressions using specification (3) pooling data for men and women. Standard errors in parentheses.

* p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001.

Source: Authors’ calculations based on Quadros de Pessoal.

Table 4
Wage regressions – OLS

	Baseline specification (4)					Specification (4) with additional controls
	1986	1996	2005	2010	2013	1986	1996	2005	2010	2013
9th grade	0.3309***	0.2824***	0.2127***	0.1936***	0.1832***	0.2360***	0.1966***	0.1663***	0.1577***	0.1508***
9th grade	(0.0011)	(0.0009)	(0.0007)	(0.0007)	(0.0008)	(0.0009)	(0.0008)	(0.0007)	(0.0007)	(0.0008)
Second. educ.	0.4365***	0.4604***	0.4138***	0.3839***	0.3720***	0.3156***	0.3304***	0.3278***	0.3117***	0.3058***
Second. educ.	(0.0016)	(0.0010)	(0.0008)	(0.0008)	(0.0008)	(0.0012)	(0.0009)	(0.0008)	(0.0008)	(0.0008)
Tertiary educ.	0.7643***	0.9508***	0.9356***	0.8767***	0.8496***	0.6521***	0.8005***	0.8321***	0.7883***	0.7697***
Tertiary educ.	(0.0026)	(0.0017)	(0.0011)	(0.0010)	(0.0010)	(0.0019)	(0.0014)	(0.0010)	(0.0009)	(0.0009)
Age	0.0569***	0.0437***	0.0397***	0.0401***	0.0425***	0.0471***	0.0381***	0.0360***	0.0356***	0.0370***
Age	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)
Age sqrd.	-0.0006***	-0.0004***	-0.0004***	-0.0004***	-0.0004***	-0.0005***	-0.0004***	-0.0004***	-0.0003***	-0.0004***
Age sqrd.	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)
Sex (male=1)	0.1947***	0.2543***	0.2581***	0.2484***	0.2525***	0.1606***	0.1964***	0.2167***	0.2068***	0.2030***
Sex (male=1)	(0.0007)	(0.0006)	(0.0005)	(0.0005)	(0.0006)	(0.0007)	(0.0007)	(0.0006)	(0.0006)	(0.0006)
Firm size (log)	0.0784***	0.0841***	0.0713***	0.0500***	0.0450***	0.0584***	0.0620***	0.0532***	0.0333***	0.0303***
Firm size (log)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)
Tenure	0.0068***	0.0123***	0.0179***	0.0173***	0.0169***	0.0087***	0.0127***	0.0187***	0.0170***	0.0164***
Tenure	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)
Tenure sqrd.	0	-0.0002***	-0.0003***	-0.0002***	-0.0001***	-0.0001***	-0.0002***	-0.0003***	-0.0002***	-0.0002***
Tenure sqrd.	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)
Intercept	-1.8229***	-1.4761***	-1.2544***	-1.1626***	-1.2639***	-1.7812***	-1.3597***	-1.1697***	-1.0422***	-1.1261***
Intercept	(0.0033)	(0.0035)	(0.0034)	(0.0035)	(0.0039)	(0.0042)	(0.0043)	(0.0042)	(0.0043)	(0.0046)
Region controls	N	N	N	N	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Industry controls	N	N	N	N	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
R-squared	0.52	0.52	0.49	0.46	0.46	0.61	0.59	0.54	0.51	0.5
N	990215	1464732	1981128	2042134	1904805	990215	1464732	1981128	2042134	1904805

Notes: Coefficients obtained from OLS regressions using specification (4) pooling data for men and women. Standard errors in parentheses.

* p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001.

Source: Authors’ calculations based on Quadros de Pessoal.

Table 5
Wage regressions – Quantile Regressions

	1986			1996			2005			2010			2013
	P10	P50	P90	P10	P50	P90	P10	P50	P90	P10	P50	P90	P10	P50	P90
9^th grade	0.1995***	0.3219***	0.4409***	0.1359***	0.2636***	0.3751***	0.0996***	0.1904***	0.2861***	0.0862***	0.1747***	0.2580***	0.0813***	0.1653***	0.2534***
9^th grade	(0.0013)	(0.0014)	(0.0022)	(0.0009)	(0.0011)	(0.0019)	(0.0006)	(0.0008)	(0.0016)	(0.0004)	(0.0007)	(0.0017)	(0.0004)	(0.0007)	(0.0018)
Second. educ.	0.2628***	0.4312***	0.5866***	0.2364***	0.4497***	0.6192***	0.1955***	0.3962***	0.5699***	0.1635***	0.3548***	0.5352***	0.1530***	0.3418***	0.5285***
Second. educ.	(0.0017)	(0.0020)	(0.0027)	(0.0011)	(0.0012)	(0.0021)	(0.0007)	(0.0009)	(0.0017)	(0.0005)	(0.0008)	(0.0018)	(0.0005)	(0.0008)	(0.0018)
Tertiary educ.	0.5473***	0.8431***	0.8663***	0.6331***	1.0206***	1.1082***	0.6006***	0.9837***	1.1092***	0.4940***	0.9108***	1.0676***	0.4502***	0.8800***	1.0503***
Tertiary educ.	(0.0054)	(0.0029)	(0.0035)	(0.0038)	(0.0021)	(0.0024)	(0.0020)	(0.0013)	(0.0018)	(0.0016)	(0.0011)	(0.0018)	(0.0014)	(0.0010)	(0.0019)
Age	0.0499***	0.0508***	0.0709***	0.0221***	0.0371***	0.0626***	0.0174***	0.0347***	0.0573***	0.0141***	0.0343***	0.0582***	0.0139***	0.0366***	0.0632***
Age	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0004)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0004)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0004)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0004)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0004)
Age sqrd.	-0.0006***	-0.0006***	-0.0008***	-0.0002***	-0.0004***	-0.0006***	-0.0002***	-0.0003***	-0.0005***	-0.0001***	-0.0003***	-0.0005***	-0.0001***	-0.0004***	-0.0006***
Age sqrd.	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)
Sex (male=1)	0.1610***	0.1981***	0.2189***	0.1697***	0.2576***	0.3154***	0.1517***	0.2550***	0.3411***	0.1264***	0.2415***	0.3327***	0.1248***	0.2418***	0.3459***
Sex (male=1)	(0.0008)	(0.0008)	(0.0015)	(0.0005)	(0.0007)	(0.0014)	(0.0005)	(0.0006)	(0.0012)	(0.0004)	(0.0006)	(0.0012)	(0.0004)	(0.0006)	(0.0012)
Firm size (log.)	0.0653***	0.0768***	0.0811***	0.0697***	0.0834***	0.0818***	0.0525***	0.0699***	0.0749***	0.0279***	0.0467***	0.0544***	0.0255***	0.0403***	0.0515***
Firm size (log.)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0004)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0003)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0003)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0003)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0003)
Tenure	0.0067***	0.0062***	0.0076***	0.0112***	0.0145***	0.0047***	0.0132***	0.0182***	0.0121***	0.0116***	0.0173***	0.0122***	0.0136***	0.0166***	0.0094***
Tenure	(0.0002)	(0.0001)	(0.0003)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0003)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)	(0.0001)	(0.0001)	(0.0002)
Tenure sqrd.	-0.0001***	0.0000***	0.0000***	-0.0003***	-0.0002***	0.0001***	-0.0002***	-0.0002***	-0.0001***	-0.0002***	-0.0002***	-0.0000***	-0.0002***	-0.0001***	0.0001***
Tenure sqrd.	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)
Intercept	-1.8962***	-1.7218***	-1.7707***	-1.2250***	-1.3824***	-1.4688***	-0.8965***	-1.1694***	-1.2918***	-0.6226***	-1.0440***	-1.2513***	-0.6578***	-1.1268***	-1.4207***
Intercept	(0.0039)	(0.0034)	(0.0067)	(0.0018)	(0.0035)	(0.0071)	(0.0021)	(0.0034)	(0.0076)	(0.0016)	(0.0028)	(0.0079)	(0.0018)	(0.0030)	(0.0085)
N	990215	990215	990215	1464732	1464732	1464732	1981128	1981128	1981128	2042134	2042134	2042134	1904805	1904805	1904805

Notes: Coefficients obtained from QR regressions using specification (5) pooling data for men and women. Standard errors in parentheses.

* p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001.

Source: Authors’ calculations based on Quadros de Pessoal.

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Matthias Kollatz-Ahnen, Markus J. Roick
Financing public sector investment

Zdravko Marić
Public investment: catalyst for sustainable growth

Manica Hauptman
Importance of public investment for economic growth in the European Union

Zrinka Živković Matijević
Sustainability is the issue of human capital investments

Ehtisham Ahmad, Annalisa Vinella, Kezhou Xiao
Contracting arrangements and public private partnerships for sustainable development

Sanja Borkovic, Peter Tabak
Public investment and corporate productivity in Croatia

Gökçen Yilmaz
Composition of public investment and economic growth: evidence from Turkish provinces, 1975-2001

Maria Manuel Campos, Hugo Reis
Returns to schooling in the Portuguese economy: a reassessment

Predrag Bejaković
Economics for the Common Good