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The euro and inflation in Croatia: much ado about nothing?
Petar Sorić* 
Article | Year: 2024 | Pages: 1 - 37 | Volume: 48 | Issue: 1 Received: June 1, 2023 | Accepted: October 25, 2023 | Published online: March 1, 2024
|
FULL ARTICLE
FIGURES & DATA
REFERENCES
CROSSMARK POLICY
METRICS
LICENCING
PDF
Note: Vertical dotted line corresponds to September 2022 (start of obligatory dual display of
prices). Vertical full line corresponds to January 2023 (euro changeover). Inflation expectations
are quantified as the response balance to question 6 from the EU Consumer Survey (see section
3 for details). Source: Eurostat and European Commission.
|
January
|
February
|
March
|
April
|
May
|
June
|
July
|
|
hicp
|
1.704
|
0.974
|
1.589
|
0.508
|
1.199
|
2.062
|
2.038
|
|
(0.038)
|
(0.291)
|
(0.155)
|
(0.601)
|
(0.235)
|
(0.038)
|
(0.014)
|
|
food
|
0.065
|
0.203
|
0.823
|
2.748
|
3.927
|
4.889
|
3.615
|
|
(0.986)
|
(0.934)
|
(0.648)
|
(0.127)
|
(0.019)
|
(0.005)
|
(0.028)
|
|
nonalc
|
0.202
|
-1.845
|
-1.570
|
-0.002
|
1.971
|
3.038
|
2.653
|
|
(0.864)
|
(0.315)
|
(0.390)
|
(0.977)
|
(0.296)
|
(0.089)
|
(0.113)
|
|
alc
|
1.077
|
-0.522
|
-2.041
|
-1.794
|
-1.449
|
-1.294
|
-1.374
|
|
(0.577)
|
(0.826)
|
(0.282)
|
(0.343)
|
(0.498)
|
(0.545)
|
(0.516)
|
|
clothing
|
8.225
|
5.901
|
3.294
|
3.419
|
2.121
|
4.385
|
7.374
|
|
(0.005)
|
(0.014)
|
(0.202)
|
(0.174)
|
(0.441)
|
(0.094)
|
(0.005)
|
|
housing
|
4.362
|
3.626
|
0.800
|
-1.105
|
-1.182
|
-0.703
|
-0.086
|
|
(0.244)
|
(0.371)
|
(0.930)
|
(0.718)
|
(0.681)
|
(0.812)
|
(0.953)
|
|
furnish
|
1.463
|
1.014
|
0.181
|
-1.211
|
0.699
|
1.165
|
2.154
|
|
(0.061)
|
(0.197)
|
(0.817)
|
(0.117)
|
(0.380)
|
(0.131)
|
(0.019)
|
|
health
|
2.386
|
1.795
|
1.539
|
1.782
|
2.831
|
4.098
|
4.364
|
|
(0.188)
|
(0.324)
|
(0.385)
|
(0.366)
|
(0.169)
|
(0.023)
|
(0.019)
|
|
transport
|
-0.835
|
-0.373
|
-0.761
|
-1.722
|
-1.421
|
0.198
|
1.109
|
|
(0.577)
|
(0.751)
|
(0.592)
|
(0.300)
|
(0.352)
|
(0.901)
|
(0.479)
|
|
commun
|
-1.623
|
-1.662
|
-1.034
|
-0.097
|
0.167
|
-0.979
|
1.647
|
|
0.277)
|
(0.277)
|
(0.521)
|
(0.962)
|
(0.911)
|
(0.540)
|
(0.291)
|
|
recr
|
-0.802
|
-2.032
|
-3.410
|
-3.965
|
-4.310
|
-3.545
|
-0.533
|
|
(0.549)
|
(0.188)
|
(0.056)
|
(0.033)
|
(0.023)
|
(0.075)
|
(0.789)
|
|
educ
|
1.970
|
1.718
|
2.299
|
2.465
|
2.084
|
2.683
|
3.560
|
|
(0.235)
|
(0.277)
|
(0.192)
|
(0.178)
|
(0.239)
|
(0.174)
|
(0.061)
|
|
rest
|
4.340
|
3.701
|
4.391
|
5.276
|
6.890
|
9.087
|
7.024
|
|
(0.028)
|
(0.052)
|
(0.038)
|
(0.038)
|
(0.014)
|
(0.005)
|
(0.009)
|
|
misc
|
1.501
|
-0.049)
|
0.269
|
0.298
|
1.219
|
0.915
|
0.930
|
|
(0.103)
|
(0.930)
|
(0.756)
|
(0.732)
|
(0.188)
|
(0.371)
|
(0.366)
|
Note: Table entries are gaps between actual and synthetic values of corresponding variables. Positive gaps imply that actual values are greater than the synthetic ones. P-values are given in parentheses. Bold entries are significant at the 5% level. Source: Author’s calculation.
|
January
|
February
|
March
|
April
|
May
|
June
|
July
|
|
hicp
|
0.862
|
0.220
|
-0.439
|
-1.225
|
-0.348
|
0.700
|
0.905
|
|
(0.315)
|
(0.817)
|
(0.704)
|
(0.225)
|
(0.761)
|
(0.460)
|
(0.282)
|
|
food
|
-1.402
|
-0.719
|
0.210
|
2.590
|
4.231
|
4.850
|
3.442
|
|
(0.451)
|
(0.718)
|
(0.930)
|
(0.117)
|
(0.019)
|
(0.005)
|
(0.056)
|
|
nonalc
|
-0.612
|
-2.586
|
-2.417
|
-0.793
|
0.886
|
2.662
|
2.688
|
|
(0.657)
|
(0.136)
|
(0.164)
|
(0.568)
|
(0.549)
|
(0.113)
|
(0.108)
|
|
alc
|
0.795
|
-0.825
|
-2.113
|
-2.496
|
-1.738
|
-1.836
|
-1.922
|
|
(0.695)
|
(0.690)
|
(0.258)
|
(0.216)
|
(0.404)
|
(0.343)
|
(0.315)
|
|
clothing*
|
8.225
|
5.901
|
3.294
|
3.419
|
2.121
|
4.385
|
7.374
|
|
(0.005)
|
(0.014)
|
(0.202)
|
(0.174)
|
(0.441)
|
(0.094)
|
(0.005)
|
|
housing
|
1.024
|
-0.102
|
-1.555
|
-4.839
|
-5.390
|
-4.619
|
-3.682
|
|
(0.878)
|
(0.911)
|
(0.648)
|
(0.225)
|
(0.207)
|
(0.225)
|
(0.286)
|
|
furn*
|
1.463
|
1.014
|
0.181
|
-1.211
|
0.699
|
1.165
|
2.154
|
|
(0.061)
|
(0.197)
|
(0.817)
|
(0.117)
|
(0.380)
|
(0.131)
|
(0.019)
|
|
health
|
2.561
|
2.029
|
1.754
|
1.802
|
3.153
|
5.098
|
5.287
|
|
(0.178)
|
(0.272)
|
(0.315)
|
(0.347)
|
(0.136)
|
(0.019)
|
(0.019)
|
|
transport
|
0.143
|
1.034
|
1.717
|
0.866
|
-0.112
|
1.376
|
2.172
|
|
(0.958)
|
(0.568)
|
(0.333)
|
(0.554)
|
(0.948)
|
(0.352)
|
(0.160)
|
|
commun
|
-2.028
|
-2.431
|
-2.058
|
-0.566
|
-0.586
|
-1.993
|
0.860
|
|
(0.239)
|
(0.169)
|
(0.258)
|
(0.700)
|
(0.695)
|
(0.263)
|
(0.592)
|
|
recr*
|
-0.802
|
-2.032
|
-3.410
|
-3.965
|
-4.310
|
-3.545
|
-0.533
|
|
(0.549)
|
(0.188)
|
(0.056)
|
(0.033)
|
(0.023)
|
(0.075)
|
(0.789)
|
|
educ
|
1.564
|
1.156
|
1.313
|
1.476
|
1.178
|
1.577
|
2.260
|
|
(0.319)
|
(0.451)
|
(0.390)
|
(0.366)
|
(0.446)
|
(0.324)
|
(0.188)
|
|
rest
|
4.222
|
3.531
|
4.176
|
5.265
|
6.417
|
8.837
|
6.821
|
|
(0.028)
|
(0.052)
|
(0.042)
|
(0.042)
|
(0.009)
|
(0.005)
|
(0.009)
|
|
misc
|
1.808
|
0.682
|
0.737
|
0.985
|
1.521
|
0.618
|
0.770
|
|
(0.099)
|
(0.455)
|
(0.418)
|
(0.300)
|
(0.127)
|
(0.488)
|
(0.413)
|
Note: Table entries are gaps between actual and synthetic values of corresponding variables. Positive gaps imply that actual values are greater than the synthetic ones. P-values are given in parentheses. Bold entries are significant at the 5% level. * Denotes specifications with no MSPEs three times larger than the Croatian one (leaving the baseline ASCM results intact). Source: Author’s calculation.
|
January
|
February
|
March
|
April
|
May
|
June
|
July
|
|
hicp
|
2.678
|
1.626
|
2.478
|
0.853
|
0.506
|
1.174
|
1.298
|
|
(0.355)
|
(0.595)
|
(0.397)
|
(0.769)
|
(0.81)
|
(0.636)
|
(0.554)
|
|
food
|
4.521
|
3.286
|
2.543
|
3.220
|
3.441
|
4.811
|
3.721
|
|
(0.157)
|
(0.306)
|
(0.372)
|
(0.215)
|
(0.149)
|
(0.025)
|
(0.074)
|
|
nonalc
|
1.124
|
-3.245
|
-3.583
|
-3.264
|
-2.031
|
0.215
|
-1.607
|
|
(0.736)
|
(0.339)
|
(0.413)
|
(0.463)
|
(0.62)
|
(0.95)
|
(0.463)
|
|
alc
|
2.783
|
1.040
|
-0.778
|
-0.455
|
-0.454
|
0.287
|
0.141
|
|
(0.215)
|
(0.579)
|
(0.678)
|
(0.851)
|
(0.843)
|
(0.959)
|
(0.992)
|
|
clothing
|
8.871
|
6.440
|
2.785
|
3.413
|
1.813
|
4.148
|
7.803
|
|
(0.008)
|
(0.033)
|
(0.421)
|
(0.174)
|
(0.636)
|
(0.083)
|
(0.008)
|
|
housing
|
-22.051
|
-16.597
|
-12.641
|
-27.614
|
-29.643
|
-20.988
|
-15.951
|
|
(0.612)
|
(0.562)
|
(0.653)
|
(0.388)
|
(0.372)
|
(0.397)
|
(0.512)
|
|
furn
|
6.726
|
5.535
|
4.894
|
3.677
|
3.762
|
3.114
|
3.022
|
|
(0.008)
|
(0.008)
|
(0.008)
|
(0.008)
|
(0.008)
|
(0.008)
|
(0.008)
|
|
health
|
-4.891
|
-5.445
|
-4.343
|
-5.334
|
-3.745
|
-1.526
|
-2.173
|
|
(0.099)
|
(0.066)
|
(0.165)
|
(0.215)
|
(0.355)
|
(0.711)
|
(0.57)
|
|
transport
|
-0.613
|
-0.533
|
-0.916
|
-0.845
|
-1.627
|
-0.587
|
0.558
|
|
(0.727)
|
(0.744)
|
(0.694)
|
(0.645)
|
(0.463)
|
(0.744)
|
(0.835)
|
|
commun
|
-0.076
|
-0.094
|
0.471
|
1.884
|
1.886
|
-0.362
|
3.159
|
|
(0.975)
|
(0.975)
|
(0.818)
|
(0.405)
|
(0.397)
|
(0.851)
|
(0.207)
|
|
recr
|
-6.616
|
-7.152
|
-8.661
|
-9.315
|
-8.989
|
-5.424
|
2.099
|
|
(0.231)
|
(0.165)
|
(0.14)
|
(0.058)
|
(0.033)
|
(0.149)
|
(0.545)
|
|
educ
|
13.190
|
13.044
|
13.313
|
12.737
|
12.811
|
13.079
|
13.782
|
|
(0.223)
|
(0.231)
|
(0.223)
|
(0.24)
|
(0.248)
|
(0.231)
|
(0.223)
|
|
rest
|
12.742
|
12.243
|
13.025
|
11.675
|
11.423
|
12.661
|
9.611
|
|
(0.033)
|
(0.033)
|
(0.033)
|
(0.033)
|
(0.025)
|
(0.017)
|
(0.025)
|
|
misc
|
3.894
|
2.993
|
2.967
|
2.476
|
2.331
|
1.888
|
1.904
|
|
(0.017)
|
(0.05)
|
(0.025)
|
(0.05)
|
(0.074)
|
(0.091)
|
(0.099)
|
Note: Table entries are gaps between actual and synthetic values of corresponding variables. Positive gaps imply that actual values are greater than the synthetic ones. P-values are given in parentheses. Bold entries are significant at the 5% level. Source: Author’s calculation.
|
January
|
February
|
March
|
April
|
May
|
June
|
July
|
|
hicp
|
3.285
|
2.245
|
2.821
|
1.683
|
2.210
|
3.117
|
2.998
|
|
(0.005)
|
(0.038)
|
(0.043)
|
(0.215)
|
(0.048)
|
(0.01)
|
(0.005)
|
|
food
|
1.832
|
1.994
|
2.338
|
4.398
|
4.890
|
5.469
|
3.203
|
|
(0.378)
|
(0.359)
|
(0.282)
|
(0.033)
|
(0.01)
|
(0.005)
|
(0.067)
|
|
nonalc
|
2.052
|
-0.339
|
0.642
|
2.290
|
3.811
|
4.546
|
3.525
|
|
(0.297)
|
(0.809)
|
(0.727)
|
(0.301)
|
(0.062)
|
(0.014)
|
(0.053)
|
|
alc
|
0.946
|
-0.674
|
-2.200
|
-1.948
|
-1.599
|
-1.388
|
-1.437
|
|
(0.627)
|
(0.756)
|
(0.278)
|
(0.321)
|
(0.459)
|
(0.536)
|
(0.512)
|
|
clothing
|
7.889
|
5.817
|
3.118
|
3.143
|
2.098
|
3.728
|
7.265
|
|
(0.005)
|
(0.019)
|
(0.187)
|
(0.158)
|
(0.373)
|
(0.091)
|
(0.005)
|
|
housing
|
5.608
|
4.200
|
1.014
|
-2.075
|
-2.172
|
-1.993
|
-0.969
|
|
(0.474)
|
(0.565)
|
(0.938)
|
(0.689)
|
(0.651)
|
(0.641)
|
(0.77)
|
|
furn
|
2.542
|
1.932
|
1.136
|
-0.299
|
1.425
|
1.600
|
2.469
|
|
(0.01)
|
(0.033)
|
(0.196)
|
(0.684)
|
(0.1)
|
(0.043)
|
(0.005)
|
|
health
|
2.516
|
1.926
|
1.670
|
1.929
|
2.990
|
4.239
|
4.506
|
|
(0.182)
|
(0.301)
|
(0.388)
|
(0.349)
|
(0.172)
|
(0.024)
|
(0.019)
|
|
transport
|
-0.216
|
-0.013
|
-0.837
|
-1.878
|
-1.846
|
-0.042
|
0.702
|
|
(0.809)
|
(0.952)
|
(0.574)
|
(0.244)
|
(0.263)
|
(0.947)
|
(0.651)
|
|
commun
|
-1.781
|
-1.922
|
-0.374
|
0.529
|
0.879
|
-0.322
|
2.579
|
|
(0.254)
|
(0.23)
|
(0.852)
|
(0.742)
|
(0.569)
|
(0.861)
|
(0.124)
|
|
recr
|
-1.670
|
-2.882
|
-4.296
|
-4.707
|
-4.951
|
-4.009
|
-0.692
|
|
(0.378)
|
(0.163)
|
(0.053)
|
(0.033)
|
(0.024)
|
(0.067)
|
(0.77)
|
|
educ
|
1.971
|
1.721
|
2.179
|
2.330
|
1.919
|
2.477
|
3.333
|
|
(0.603)
|
(0.636)
|
(0.569)
|
(0.541)
|
(0.612)
|
(0.522)
|
(0.397)
|
|
rest
|
7.230
|
6.572
|
7.063
|
7.692
|
9.500
|
11.415
|
9.530
|
|
(0.01)
|
(0.01)
|
(0.01)
|
(0.014)
|
(0.01)
|
(0.005)
|
(0.01)
|
|
misc
|
3.126
|
1.891
|
1.727
|
1.115
|
1.649
|
1.383
|
1.158
|
|
(0.01)
|
(0.11)
|
(0.11)
|
(0.268)
|
(0.1)
|
(0.201)
|
(0.273)
|
Note: Table entries are gaps between actual and synthetic values of corresponding variables. Positive gaps imply that actual values are greater than the synthetic ones. P-values are given in parentheses. Bold entries are significant at the 5% level. Source: Author’s calculation.
|
January
|
February
|
March
|
April
|
May
|
June
|
July
|
|
hicp
|
1.988
|
1.196
|
1.884
|
0.768
|
1.429
|
2.275
|
2.234
|
|
(0.024)
|
(0.212)
|
(0.108)
|
(0.472)
|
(0.189)
|
(0.028)
|
(0.005)
|
|
food
|
0.280
|
0.353
|
1.023
|
2.935
|
4.014
|
4.961
|
3.604
|
|
(0.901)
|
(0.882)
|
(0.559)
|
(0.113)
|
(0.024)
|
(0.005)
|
(0.028)
|
|
nonalc
|
-0.018
|
-2.062
|
-1.764
|
-0.213
|
1.533
|
2.949
|
2.625
|
|
(0.981)
|
(0.255)
|
(0.354)
|
(0.896)
|
(0.382)
|
(0.108)
|
(0.132)
|
|
alc
|
1.103
|
-0.491
|
-2.010
|
-1.754
|
-1.148
|
-1.276
|
-1.362
|
|
(0.571)
|
(0.844)
|
(0.288)
|
(0.368)
|
(0.509)
|
(0.552)
|
(0.524)
|
|
clothing
|
8.193
|
6.030
|
3.455
|
3.351
|
2.372
|
4.265
|
7.397
|
|
(0.005)
|
(0.009)
|
(0.16)
|
(0.156)
|
(0.349)
|
(0.08)
|
(0.005)
|
|
housing
|
4.264
|
3.606
|
0.971
|
-1.116
|
-1.014
|
-0.719
|
-0.274
|
|
(0.335)
|
(0.462)
|
(0.939)
|
(0.741)
|
(0.741)
|
(0.802)
|
(0.915)
|
|
furn
|
1.755
|
1.190
|
0.488
|
-0.790
|
0.936
|
1.357
|
2.262
|
|
(0.028)
|
(0.156)
|
(0.491)
|
(0.349)
|
(0.264)
|
(0.118)
|
(0.009)
|
|
health
|
2.431
|
1.840
|
1.588
|
1.836
|
2.889
|
4.155
|
4.422
|
|
(0.184)
|
(0.311)
|
(0.382)
|
(0.358)
|
(0.17)
|
(0.024)
|
(0.019)
|
|
transport
|
-0.822
|
-0.596
|
-1.142
|
-2.081
|
-1.851
|
-0.048
|
0.814
|
|
(0.566)
|
(0.632)
|
(0.472)
|
(0.217)
|
(0.259)
|
(0.892)
|
(0.608)
|
|
commun
|
-1.749
|
-1.682
|
-0.932
|
-0.004
|
0.254
|
-0.966
|
1.789
|
|
(0.269)
|
(0.311)
|
(0.604)
|
(1.000)
|
(0.868)
|
(0.594)
|
(0.269)
|
|
recr
|
-0.868
|
-2.090
|
-3.474
|
-4.006
|
-4.354
|
-3.561
|
-0.498
|
|
(0.528)
|
(0.203)
|
(0.057)
|
(0.033)
|
(0.024)
|
(0.075)
|
(0.811)
|
|
educ
|
1.980
|
1.726
|
2.335
|
2.504
|
2.130
|
2.737
|
3.618
|
|
(0.245)
|
(0.292)
|
(0.203)
|
(0.193)
|
(0.245)
|
(0.179)
|
(0.066)
|
|
rest
|
4.950
|
4.365
|
4.982
|
5.787
|
7.391
|
9.592
|
7.653
|
|
(0.024)
|
(0.033)
|
(0.028)
|
(0.028)
|
(0.009)
|
(0.005)
|
(0.009)
|
|
misc
|
1.963
|
0.501
|
0.695
|
0.594
|
1.495
|
1.238
|
1.218
|
|
(0.028)
|
(0.604)
|
(0.462)
|
(0.495)
|
(0.127)
|
(0.212)
|
(0.212)
|
Note: Table entries are gaps between actual and synthetic values of corresponding variables. Positive gaps imply that actual values are greater than the synthetic ones. P-values are given in parentheses. Bold entries are significant at the 5% level. Source: Author’s calculation.
|
January
|
February
|
March
|
April
|
May
|
June
|
July
|
|
meat
|
-1.283
|
-2.973
|
-0.734
|
2.335
|
0.091
|
0.432
|
-1.780
|
|
(0.521)
|
(0.178)
|
(0.770)
|
(0.362)
|
(0.986)
|
(0.915)
|
(0.484)
|
|
fish
|
-1.923
|
-3.275
|
-4.825
|
-5.100
|
-1.459
|
1.442
|
-0.095
|
|
(0.404)
|
(0.146)
|
(0.070)
|
(0.047)
|
(0.535)
|
(0.559)
|
(0.972)
|
|
milk
|
-2.491
|
-1.951
|
0.767
|
0.471
|
4.049
|
4.818
|
1.808
|
|
(0.352)
|
(0.507)
|
(0.803)
|
(0.854)
|
(0.164)
|
(0.117)
|
(0.432)
|
|
fruit
|
-4.303
|
-3.349
|
1.101
|
2.744
|
3.368
|
4.127
|
2.787
|
|
(0.277)
|
(0.380)
|
(0.779)
|
(0.455)
|
(0.366)
|
(0.296)
|
(0.455)
|
|
veg
|
-8.104
|
-4.751
|
2.806
|
3.644
|
4.121
|
7.153
|
7.649
|
|
(0.136)
|
(0.357)
|
(0.601)
|
(0.446)
|
(0.408)
|
(0.178)
|
(0.141)
|
|
coffee
|
-1.677
|
-1.464
|
-2.774
|
2.215
|
6.952
|
5.684
|
4.821
|
|
(0.371)
|
(0.441)
|
(0.211)
|
(0.329)
|
(0.014)
|
(0.014)
|
(0.023)
|
|
juice
|
0.157
|
-1.986
|
-0.516
|
-1.538
|
1.077
|
2.895
|
2.394
|
|
(0.901)
|
(0.441)
|
(0.831)
|
(0.592)
|
(0.685)
|
(0.244)
|
(0.300)
|
|
wine
|
-0.528
|
-0.290
|
0.727
|
2.099
|
5.995
|
3.565
|
5.966
|
|
(0.770)
|
(0.869)
|
(0.709)
|
(0.329)
|
(0.005)
|
(0.080)
|
(0.005)
|
|
beer
|
3.788
|
3.975
|
-0.751
|
-1.279
|
-0.452
|
0.967
|
3.097
|
|
(0.047)
|
(0.052)
|
(0.718)
|
(0.521)
|
(0.812)
|
(0.568)
|
(0.080)
|
|
tobacco
|
-0.927
|
-1.655
|
-2.002
|
-2.913
|
-2.302
|
-1.474
|
-3.132
|
|
(0.765)
|
(0.545)
|
(0.502)
|
(0.357)
|
(0.446)
|
(0.592)
|
(0.347)
|
|
cloth
|
8.285
|
6.095
|
3.391
|
3.044
|
1.403
|
3.844
|
6.031
|
|
(0.005)
|
(0.028)
|
(0.239)
|
(0.291)
|
(0.610)
|
(0.192)
|
(0.028)
|
|
foot
|
7.504
|
3.174
|
1.657
|
1.126
|
2.055
|
2.582
|
7.947
|
|
(0.014)
|
(0.310)
|
(0.582)
|
(0.681)
|
(0.512)
|
(0.385)
|
(0.009)
|
|
cater
|
4.486
|
3.314
|
3.236
|
4.180
|
4.397
|
5.376
|
5.883
|
|
(0.005)
|
(0.014)
|
(0.014)
|
(0.009)
|
(0.005)
|
(0.005)
|
(0.005)
|
|
rest_caf
|
5.289
|
3.131
|
3.325
|
4.224
|
4.380
|
5.399
|
5.818
|
|
(0.005)
|
(0.014)
|
(0.014)
|
(0.005)
|
(0.005)
|
(0.005)
|
(0.005)
|
|
accomm
|
2.670
|
4.605
|
4.833
|
-0.029
|
6.069
|
13.572
|
8.008
|
|
(0.399)
|
(0.150)
|
(0.131)
|
(0.977)
|
(0.066)
|
(0.014)
|
(0.033)
|
Note: Table entries are gaps between actual and synthetic values of corresponding variables. Positive gaps imply that actual values are greater than the synthetic ones. P-values are given in parentheses. Bold entries are significant at the 5% level. Source: Author’s’calculation.
Source: Author’s calculation.
Note: y-o-y annual HICP inflation rates are depicted on the horizontal axis, and measures of market concentration are on the vertical axis. Both panels refer to the period of 2006-2021, conditioned by data availability. Source: Author’s calculation based on data from the Agency for the Protection of Market Competition.
 Note: Vertical axis captures the gaps between actual and synthetic values of corresponding variables (in percentage points). Positive gaps imply that actual values are greater than the synthetic ones, i.e. the currency changeover induced an inflation hike. Horizontal axis denotes time. Vertical dashed line denotes the date of currency changeover (January 2023). Grey shaded area after the currency changeover corresponds to the 95% confidence interval. Hicp and health models are estimated without auxiliary covariates. Food model is estimated with exp, gap, hicp, beer, fish, and milk as covariates. Nonalc, clothing, and housing models use exp, gap, and hicp as covariates. Furn and commun utilize fuel, exp, gap, and hicp; while recr, educ, rest, misc, and alc use fuel, exp, and gap as covariates. For the transport model we used exp and gap. Source: Author’s calculation.
Note: Vertical axis captures the gaps between actual and synthetic values of corresponding variables (in percentage points). Positive gaps imply that actual values are greater than the synthetic ones, i.e. the currency changeover induced an inflation hike. Horizontal axis denotes time. Vertical dashed line denotes the date of currency changeover (January 2023). Grey shaded area after the currency changeover corresponds to the 95% confidence interval. Meat, fish, fruit, veg, foot, rest_solo, and accomm models are estimated without auxiliary covariates. Wine and cloth models use exp, gap, and hicp as covariates. Milk, juice, beer, tobacco, and cater utilize fuel, exp, gap, and hicp as covariates. For the coffee model we used exp and gap. Source: Author’s calculation.  Note: Vertical axis captures the gaps between actual and synthetic values of corresponding variables (in percentage points). Positive gaps imply that actual values are greater than the synthetic ones, i.e. the currency changeover induced an inflation hike. Horizontal axis denotes time. Vertical dashed line denotes the date of currency changeover (January 2023). Grey shaded area after the currency changeover corresponds to the 95% confidence interval. Meat, fish, fruit, veg, foot, rest_solo, and accomm models are estimated without auxiliary covariates. Wine and cloth models use exp, gap, and hicp as covariates. Milk, juice, beer, tobacco, and cater utilize fuel, exp, gap, and hicp as covariates. For the coffee model we used exp and gap. Source: Author’s calculation.
|
January
|
February
|
March
|
April
|
May
|
June
|
July
|
|
hicp
|
1.048
|
0.434
|
0.847
|
0.000
|
0.702
|
1.652
|
1.823
|
|
(0.089)
|
(0.174)
|
(0.352)
|
(0.826)
|
(0.568)
|
(0.023)
|
(0.014)
|
|
food
|
-0.522
|
-0.716
|
-0.232
|
1.993
|
3.079
|
3.914
|
2.744
|
|
(0.413)
|
(0.423)
|
(0.793)
|
(0.775)
|
(0.460)
|
(0.249)
|
(0.709)
|
|
nonalc
|
-0.507
|
-2.834
|
-2.613
|
-1.084
|
1.189
|
2.076
|
2.150
|
|
(0.765)
|
(0.197)
|
(0.202)
|
(0.634)
|
(0.427)
|
(0.122)
|
(0.113)
|
|
alc
|
1.436
|
0.294
|
-1.040
|
-0.518
|
-0.103
|
0.553
|
0.109
|
|
(0.432)
|
(0.822)
|
(0.305)
|
(0.441)
|
(0.577)
|
(0.690)
|
(0.690)
|
|
clothing
|
6.406
|
4.039
|
1.820
|
1.070
|
0.093
|
1.796
|
4.496
|
|
(0.005)
|
(0.023)
|
(0.263)
|
(0.305)
|
(0.498)
|
(0.192)
|
(0.005)
|
|
housing
|
0.391
|
-0.587
|
-1.036
|
-5.251
|
-5.417
|
-4.636
|
-3.567
|
|
(0.117)
|
(0.146)
|
(0.362)
|
(0.789)
|
(0.704)
|
(0.606)
|
(0.573)
|
|
furn
|
1.784
|
1.233
|
0.046
|
-1.423
|
0.143
|
0.882
|
1.607
|
|
(0.028)
|
(0.174)
|
(0.521)
|
(0.324)
|
(0.615)
|
(0.282)
|
(0.033)
|
|
health
|
2.026
|
1.316
|
0.594
|
0.278
|
1.040
|
2.156
|
2.361
|
|
(0.502)
|
(0.728)
|
(0.728)
|
(0.573)
|
(0.329)
|
(0.197)
|
(0.192)
|
|
transport
|
-1.009
|
-0.596
|
-0.339
|
-1.726
|
-1.209
|
0.655
|
1.183
|
|
(0.761)
|
(0.488)
|
(0.840)
|
(0.596)
|
(0.643)
|
(0.488)
|
(0.315)
|
|
commun
|
0.368
|
-0.245
|
0.629
|
1.562
|
0.928
|
-0.252
|
1.924
|
|
(0.516)
|
(0.526)
|
(0.667)
|
(0.887)
|
(0.991)
|
(0.526)
|
(0.380)
|
|
recr
|
0.700
|
-0.570
|
-2.035
|
-2.597
|
-2.989
|
-2.664
|
-0.735
|
|
(0.967)
|
(0.338)
|
(0.146)
|
(0.056)
|
(0.047)
|
(0.033)
|
(0.085)
|
|
educ
|
0.353
|
-24.000
|
0.186
|
0.011
|
-0.190
|
0.395
|
1.052
|
|
(0.981)
|
(0.873)
|
(0.808)
|
(0.704)
|
(0.624)
|
(0.761)
|
(0.958)
|
|
rest
|
3.341
|
2.776
|
2.863
|
3.088
|
4.725
|
7.510
|
5.811
|
|
(0.028)
|
(0.033)
|
(0.028)
|
(0.042)
|
(0.014)
|
(0.005)
|
(0.005)
|
|
misc
|
1.042
|
-0.355
|
-0.237
|
-0.418
|
-0.380
|
-0.318
|
0.014
|
|
(0.028)
|
(0.695)
|
(0.376)
|
(0.254)
|
(0.164)
|
(0.047)
|
(0.038)
|
Note: Table entries are gaps between actual and synthetic values of corresponding variables. Positive gaps imply that actual values are greater than the synthetic ones. P-values are given in parentheses. Bold entries are significant at the 5% level. Source: Author’s calculation.
|
January
|
February
|
March
|
April
|
May
|
June
|
July
|
|
hicp
|
2.130
|
1.686
|
1.660
|
0.683
|
1.086
|
2.256
|
2.379
|
|
(0.089)
|
(0.174)
|
(0.352)
|
(0.826)
|
(0.568)
|
(0.023)
|
(0.014)
|
|
food
|
1.317
|
1.103
|
1.866
|
2.682
|
3.121
|
3.462
|
1.893
|
|
(0.413)
|
(0.423)
|
(0.793)
|
(0.775)
|
(0.46)
|
(0.249)
|
(0.709)
|
|
nonalc
|
1.229
|
-1.142
|
2.255
|
-0.191
|
1.816
|
2.812
|
1.673
|
|
(0.765)
|
(0.197)
|
(0.202)
|
(0.634)
|
(0.427)
|
(0.122)
|
(0.113)
|
|
alc
|
0.253
|
-1.483
|
-3.047
|
-2.157
|
-2.005
|
-1.661
|
-1.648
|
|
(0.432)
|
(0.822)
|
(0.305)
|
(0.441)
|
(0.577)
|
(0.69)
|
(0.69)
|
|
clothing
|
6.200
|
4.550
|
0.759
|
1.946
|
0.806
|
3.057
|
6.611
|
|
(0.005)
|
(0.023)
|
(0.263)
|
(0.305)
|
(0.498)
|
(0.192)
|
(0.005)
|
|
housing
|
6.506
|
5.691
|
2.228
|
0.138
|
0.341
|
0.600
|
-0.541
|
|
(0.117)
|
(0.146)
|
(0.362)
|
(0.789)
|
(0.704)
|
(0.606)
|
(0.573)
|
|
furn
|
-3.466
|
-3.012
|
-3.861
|
-4.883
|
-3.060
|
-1.630
|
-0.530
|
|
(0.028)
|
(0.174)
|
(0.521)
|
(0.324)
|
(0.615)
|
(0.282)
|
(0.033)
|
|
health
|
1.483
|
0.804
|
1.072
|
1.593
|
0.537
|
3.578
|
3.578
|
|
(0.502)
|
(0.728)
|
(0.728)
|
(0.573)
|
(0.329)
|
(0.197)
|
(0.192)
|
|
transport
|
1.844
|
1.932
|
-0.292
|
-1.231
|
-1.572
|
0.027
|
1.589
|
|
(0.761)
|
(0.488)
|
(0.84)
|
(0.596)
|
(0.643)
|
(0.488)
|
(0.315)
|
|
commun
|
-2.172
|
-1.698
|
-0.956
|
-0.133
|
-0.398
|
-1.550
|
1.175
|
|
(0.516)
|
(0.526)
|
(0.667)
|
(0.887)
|
(0.991)
|
(0.526)
|
(0.38)
|
|
recr
|
-3.983
|
-5.523
|
-7.025
|
-7.190
|
-6.930
|
-6.538
|
-4.478
|
|
(0.967)
|
(0.338)
|
(0.146)
|
(0.056)
|
(0.047)
|
(0.033)
|
(0.085)
|
|
educ
|
6.853
|
6.611
|
6.372
|
5.934
|
5.669
|
5.962
|
6.387
|
|
(0.981)
|
(0.873)
|
(0.808)
|
(0.704)
|
(0.624)
|
(0.761)
|
(0.958)
|
|
rest
|
2.290
|
1.822
|
2.142
|
2.303
|
4.345
|
7.273
|
5.867
|
|
(0.028)
|
(0.033)
|
(0.028)
|
(0.042)
|
(0.014)
|
(0.005)
|
(0.005)
|
|
misc
|
-1.425
|
-2.578
|
-2.593
|
-2.417
|
-2.143
|
-1.117
|
-0.310
|
|
(0.028)
|
(0.695)
|
(0.376)
|
(0.254)
|
(0.164)
|
(0.047)
|
(0.038)
|
Note: Table entries are gaps between actual and synthetic values of corresponding variables. Positive gaps imply that actual values are greater than the synthetic ones. P-values are given in parentheses. Bold entries are significant at the 5% level. Source: Author’s calculation.
|
January
|
February
|
March
|
April
|
May
|
June
|
July
|
|
hicp
|
0.851
|
0.634
|
1.218
|
-0.527
|
-0.425
|
0.459
|
0.948
|
|
food
|
-2.481
|
-1.535
|
-0.590
|
0.548
|
1.102
|
1.167
|
0.343
|
|
nonalc
|
0.218
|
-1.857
|
-1.481
|
-0.360
|
1.590
|
1.664
|
2.326
|
|
alc
|
2.164
|
-0.168
|
-1.283
|
-1.377
|
0.283
|
1.941
|
1.028
|
|
clothing
|
7.069
|
4.907
|
3.035
|
4.122
|
2.867
|
3.736
|
7.044
|
|
housing
|
-6.476
|
-4.073
|
-3.834
|
-9.746
|
-11.619
|
-10.590
|
-8.810
|
|
furnish
|
4.001
|
2.770
|
2.731
|
0.847
|
1.593
|
1.723
|
2.154
|
|
health
|
-0.227
|
-0.686
|
-0.945
|
-1.839
|
-0.615
|
-0.386
|
-0.062
|
|
transport
|
-1.400
|
-1.975
|
-1.969
|
-2.962
|
-4.194
|
-2.425
|
-0.019
|
|
commun
|
-2.808
|
-3.525
|
-3.162
|
-1.544
|
-0.892
|
-1.316
|
0.756
|
|
recr
|
3.000
|
1.630
|
0.586
|
-1.504
|
-1.260
|
-1.679
|
-2.002
|
|
educ
|
-5.692
|
-6.128
|
-6.146
|
-5.223
|
-5.587
|
-5.525
|
-5.425
|
|
rest
|
4.238
|
3.424
|
2.932
|
0.292
|
3.928
|
6.773
|
4.584
|
|
misc
|
2.999
|
1.364
|
2.649
|
3.161
|
3.476
|
2.990
|
3.050
|
Note: Table entries are gaps between actual and synthetic values of corresponding variables. Positive gaps imply that actual values are greater than the synthetic ones. P-values are given in parentheses. Bold entries are significant at the 5% level. Source: Author’s calculation.
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March, 2024
I/2024
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