The interplay of supply and demand shocks: measuring potential output in the COVID-19 pandemic*
https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.45.4.4 | Published online: December 6, 2021 Figure 1
Comparison of different methodological approaches to estimating potential GDP and output gap Source: Authors’ calculations. Figure 2
Illustration of the impact of pandemic shock on potential GDP and the output gap given the different nature of the shock Source: ECB (2020). Figure 3
Estimation of potential output before and after the GDP 2020 data release (HRK bn) Source: Authors’ calculations. Figure 4
Production factor contributions to potential output growth (in percentage, percentage points) Source: Authors’ calculations. Figure 5
Potential growth and output gap estimated using different calibrations of the effect of the COVID-19 crisis on the trend and cycle component of TFP Note: The letter D denotes a demand shock and the letter S a supply shock.Source: Author’s calculations.Figure 6
Output gap and capacity utilization rate in Croatia (percentage) Note: The output gap is expressed as a share of potential GDP, and the capital utilization rate as a share of total production capacity of the manufacturing industry.Source: European Commission (2020); authors’ calculations.Table A3.1
Data sources
Source: Authors. Table A4.1
Data sources
Source: Authors. Table A5.1
Assumptions used to calculate potential GDP
Source: Authors. Figure A5.1
Comparison of contributions to potential GDP growth, EC – left, ours – right (in percentage, percentage points) Sources: European Commission, authors’ calculations. Figure A5.2
Comparison of the potential GDP estimate from December 2020 and December 2019, EC – left, our estimate – right (HRK bn) Sources: European Commission, authors’ calculations. Figure A5.3
Comparison of the potential growth estimate from December 2020 and December 2019, EC – left, our estimate – right (percentage) Note: The revision of the potential GDP growth rate in 2016 on the right chart follows from the revisions of data related to the labour market and is not a consequence of the problems related to the estimation of potential GDP in the context of the corona crisis. Sources: European Commission, authors’ calculations.Figure A5.4
Comparison of the output gap (percentage) Sources: European Commission, authors’ calculations.Figure 1 Comparison of different methodological approaches to estimating potential GDP and output gap DISPLAY Figure Figure 2 Illustration of the impact of pandemic shock on potential GDP and the output gap given the different nature of the shock DISPLAY Figure Figure 3 Estimation of potential output before and after the GDP 2020 data release (HRK bn) DISPLAY Figure Figure 4 Production factor contributions to potential output growth (in percentage, percentage points) DISPLAY Figure Figure 5 Potential growth and output gap estimated using different calibrations of the effect of the COVID-19 crisis on the trend and cycle component of TFP DISPLAY Figure Figure 6 Output gap and capacity utilization rate in Croatia (percentage) DISPLAY Figure Table A3.1 Data sources DISPLAY Table Table A4.1 Data sources DISPLAY Table Table A5.1 Assumptions used to calculate potential GDP DISPLAY Table Figure A5.1 Comparison of contributions to potential GDP growth, EC – left, ours – right (in percentage, percentage points) DISPLAY Figure Figure A5.2 Comparison of the potential GDP estimate from December 2020 and December 2019, EC – left, our estimate – right (HRK bn) DISPLAY Figure Figure A5.3 Comparison of the potential growth estimate from December 2020 and December 2019, EC – left, our estimate – right (percentage) DISPLAY Figure Figure A5.4 Comparison of the output gap (percentage) DISPLAY Figure |
December, 2021IV/2021 |