Public Sector Economics

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The interplay of supply and demand shocks: measuring potential output in the COVID-19 pandemic*



Lovorka Grgurić**
   
Ozana Nadoveza Jelić**
   
Nina Pavić**
Article   |   Year:  2021   |   Pages:  459 - 493   |   Volume:  45   |   Issue:  4
Received:  September 18, 2021   |   Accepted:  September 22, 2021   |   Published online:  December 6, 2021
Download citation        https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.45.4.4       


Figure 1
Comparison of different methodological approaches to estimating potential GDP and output gap
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Figure 2
Illustration of the impact of pandemic shock on potential GDP and the output gap given the different nature of the shock
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Figure 3
Estimation of potential output before and after the GDP 2020 data release (HRK bn)
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Figure 4
Production factor contributions to potential output growth (in percentage, percentage points)
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Figure 5
Potential growth and output gap estimated using different calibrations of the effect of the COVID-19 crisis on the trend and cycle component of TFP
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Figure 6
Output gap and capacity utilization rate in Croatia (percentage)
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Table A3.1
Data sources
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Table A4.1
Data sources
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Table A5.1
Assumptions used to calculate potential GDP
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Figure A5.1
Comparison of contributions to potential GDP growth, EC – left, ours – right (in percentage, percentage points)
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Figure A5.2
Comparison of the potential GDP estimate from December 2020 and December 2019, EC – left, our estimate – right (HRK bn)
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Figure A5.3
Comparison of the potential growth estimate from December 2020 and December 2019, EC – left, our estimate – right (percentage)
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Figure A5.4
Comparison of the output gap (percentage)
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  December, 2021
IV/2021
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